LAA
@
9:40p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 9:40p
· roof retractable
Park 0.94×
Wind 9 mph out
109°F
retractable
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
11:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
12:40a
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
1:40a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.32
109°F, wind 9 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
6 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Mike Trout | 72 | 🟡 B | +305 | · | 11 | 0.214 | 91.4 | 17.9% | 27.1% vs RHP | 405 | 17.9% | 16.7% | 21.1% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Zach Neto | 65 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | · | 30 | 0.203 | 89.5 | 13.2% | 20.8% vs RHP | 400 | 16.4% | 25.0% | 21.8% | 23 |
| 3 |
|
Oswald Peraza | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 92 | 0.163 | 87.4 | 11.5% | 11.8% vs RHP | 386 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Jo Adell | 49 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 99 | 0.140 | 90.5 | 11.2% | 10.8% vs RHP | 415 | 11.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Logan O'Hoppe | 47 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 109 | 0.107 | 87.4 | 13.8% | 13.0% vs RHP | 411 | 3.4% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Nolan Schanuel | 36 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.114 | 87.0 | 6.6% | 13.6% vs RHP | 371 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 14 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 37 | 0.262 | 92.0 | 9.8% | 11.1% vs LHP | 409 | 17.6% | 38.5% | 19.6% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 50 | 🟠 C | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 90 | 0.206 | 89.7 | 8.6% | 20.0% vs LHP | 395 | 14.3% | 23.1% | 19.8% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 45 | ⚪ D | +350 | · | 118 | 0.189 | 91.0 | 8.8% | 28.6% vs LHP | 416 | 11.3% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 42 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 169 | 0.174 | 85.2 | 6.9% | 25.0% vs LHP | 400 | 10.9% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 34 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 179 | 0.168 | 86.7 | 5.4% | 35.7% vs LHP | 399 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 20 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 32 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 191 | 0.127 | 88.7 | 6.7% | 11.8% | 396 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 3 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 25 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 213 | 0.101 | 87.5 | 4.6% | 7.1% vs LHP | 379 | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 38 |