Dinger Tuesday Picks — May 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-05: what the model ranked, what actually happened. Not gambling advice.
The record, in public
Home runs, graded · May 5, 2026
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Model score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nathaniel Lowe | Jameson Taillon | 83 | A Excellent |
| #12 | Mike Trout | Erick Fedde | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #13 | Matt Olson | George Kirby | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #14 | Liam Hicks | Chris Bassitt | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #19 | Christian Walker | Shohei Ohtani | 66 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Jorge Soler | Erick Fedde | 65 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Kazuma Okamoto | Drew Rasmussen | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Bryce Harper | Luis Severino | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Byron Buxton | Cade Cavalli | 48 | D Below |
| #56 | Casey Schmitt | Walker Buehler | 45 | D Below |
| #73 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Jacob deGrom | 39 | D Below |
| #76 | Willson Contreras | Framber Valdez | 38 | D Below |
| #89 | Michael Busch | Andrew Abbott | 33 | D Below |
| #107 | Zach Neto | Erick Fedde | 31 | D Below |
| #111 | Rhys Hoskins | Stephen Kolek | 30 | D Below |
| #127 | Ryan McMahon | Jacob deGrom | 27 | D Below |
| #155 | William Contreras | Andre Pallante | 24 | D Below |
| #169 | Otto Lopez | Chris Bassitt | 21 | D Below |
| #172 | Isaac Collins | Gavin Williams | 21 | D Below |
| #182 | Bryson Stott | Luis Severino | 19 | D Below |
| #191 | Xander Bogaerts | Logan Webb | 18 | D Below |
| #213 | Matt Vierling | Jovani Morán | 14 | D Below |
| #225 | J.P. Crawford | Bryce Elder | 13 | D Below |
| #255 | Wilyer Abreu | Framber Valdez | 7 | D Below |
| #256 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Framber Valdez | 6 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Casey Schmitt, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Willson Contreras, Michael Busch, Zach Neto, Rhys Hoskins, Ryan McMahon, William Contreras, Otto Lopez, Isaac Collins, Bryson Stott, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Vierling, J.P. Crawford, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela
How we approach a home run promo
A recurring home run promotion turns one day a week into a single-question day: which bat do you put the credit on? TheHomeRuns.org answers it the same way every other day — every MLB batter is scored on 30+ signals (barrel-rate matchup, the opposing starter's home-run rate, park factor, weather, recent form) and the board is ranked by home run probability. The model score you see on each pick is that composite, 0–100.
Two things we do not do. We do not publish promo terms — amounts, boosts, eligibility and availability are the sportsbook's, they change without notice, and we have no way to verify them, so check the book's own promotions page. And we do not hide bad days: every board is graded the next morning against real results, misses included, on the track record and in the dated archive. The whole reason this page is worth reading on a promo morning is that you can check what it said the last time.
Questions
Dinger Tuesday is the name used for a recurring sportsbook promotion on home run props — books such as FanDuel have run recurring home run promos. The terms, eligibility and availability are set by the sportsbook and change without notice, so TheHomeRuns.org does not publish them: check the book's own promotions page for what is live today. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. What we publish is the model's ranked home run board for the day, and the graded result of every past board.
This page is the graded record for May 5, 2026, not a live board. Today's ranked picks are at https://thehomeruns.org/dinger-tuesday-picks. Every board on this site is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses. Not gambling advice.
Across 129 graded slates this season, 15.2% of our top-50 picks homered against a 10.6% league field rate — about 1.4x the field. Every board is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses, and the dated archive on this site stays up.
Graded promo-day archive
Not gambling advice. TheHomeRuns.org publishes model output and its graded record; nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by FanDuel or any sportsbook, and we do not state any promotion's terms, credit amounts, odds or eligibility — check the sportsbook's own promotions page. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.