Dinger Tuesday Picks — August 18, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-18: what the model ranked, what actually happened. Not gambling advice.
The record, in public
Home runs, graded · August 18, 2026
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Model score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Munetaka Murakami | Kevin Gausman | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | Ryan Feltner | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Griffin Conine | Zack Wheeler | 62 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Bryan Hudson | 61 | C+ Value |
| #17 | Cam Smith | George Klassen | 61 | C+ Value |
| #51 | Bryce Eldridge | Foster Griffin | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Kazuma Okamoto | Nick Martinez | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Oneil Cruz | Keider Montero | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Drake Baldwin | Zebby Matthews | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Josh Lowe | Cristian Javier | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Coby Mayo | Carlos Rodón | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Jake Bauers | Bryce Miller | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Jo Adell | Carson Whisenhunt | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Willi Castro | Eric Lauer | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Trent Grisham | Shane Baz | 49 | D Below |
| #90 | Manny Machado | Zac Thornton | 48 | D Below |
| #93 | Justin Foscue | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #104 | Luis Torrens | Robbie Ray | 46 | D Below |
| #114 | Josh Bell | Tyler Mahle | 45 | D Below |
| #126 | Adley Rutschman | Merrill Kelly | 44 | D Below |
| #134 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zac Thornton | 43 | D Below |
| #161 | Michael Busch | Bryan Hudson | 40 | D Below |
| #167 | Alejandro Kirk | Nick Martinez | 39 | D Below |
| #176 | Luis Robert Jr. | Robbie Ray | 38 | D Below |
| #177 | Josh Smith | Nick Martinez | 38 | D Below |
| #182 | Mickey Gasper | Merrill Kelly | 38 | D Below |
| #194 | Christian Yelich | Bryce Miller | 37 | D Below |
| #208 | Masyn Winn | Andrew Abbott | 35 | D Below |
| #217 | Gabriel Moreno | Ranger Suarez | 33 | D Below |
| #232 | Luis Lara | Bryce Miller | 31 | D Below |
| #244 | David Hamilton | Bryce Miller | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Bryce Eldridge, Kazuma Okamoto, Oneil Cruz, Drake Baldwin, Josh Lowe, Coby Mayo, Jake Bauers, Jo Adell, Willi Castro, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Justin Foscue, Luis Torrens, Josh Bell, Adley Rutschman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Michael Busch, Alejandro Kirk, Luis Robert Jr., Josh Smith, Mickey Gasper, Christian Yelich, Masyn Winn, Gabriel Moreno, Luis Lara, David Hamilton
How we approach a home run promo
A recurring home run promotion turns one day a week into a single-question day: which bat do you put the credit on? TheHomeRuns.org answers it the same way every other day — every MLB batter is scored on 30+ signals (barrel-rate matchup, the opposing starter's home-run rate, park factor, weather, recent form) and the board is ranked by home run probability. The model score you see on each pick is that composite, 0–100.
Two things we do not do. We do not publish promo terms — amounts, boosts, eligibility and availability are the sportsbook's, they change without notice, and we have no way to verify them, so check the book's own promotions page. And we do not hide bad days: every board is graded the next morning against real results, misses included, on the track record and in the dated archive. The whole reason this page is worth reading on a promo morning is that you can check what it said the last time.
Questions
Dinger Tuesday is the name used for a recurring sportsbook promotion on home run props — books such as FanDuel have run recurring home run promos. The terms, eligibility and availability are set by the sportsbook and change without notice, so TheHomeRuns.org does not publish them: check the book's own promotions page for what is live today. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. What we publish is the model's ranked home run board for the day, and the graded result of every past board.
This page is the graded record for August 18, 2026, not a live board. Today's ranked picks are at https://thehomeruns.org/dinger-tuesday-picks. Every board on this site is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses. Not gambling advice.
Across 142 graded slates this season, 15.3% of our top-50 picks homered against a 10.7% league field rate — about 1.4x the field. Every board is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses, and the dated archive on this site stays up.
Graded promo-day archive
Not gambling advice. TheHomeRuns.org publishes model output and its graded record; nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by FanDuel or any sportsbook, and we do not state any promotion's terms, credit amounts, odds or eligibility — check the sportsbook's own promotions page. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.