Dinger Tuesday Picks — September 22, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-22: what the model ranked, what actually happened. Not gambling advice.
The record, in public
Home runs, graded · September 22, 2026
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Model score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Elly De La Cruz | JR Ritchie | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #7 | Yordan Álvarez | Logan Gilbert | 66 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Eugenio Suárez | JR Ritchie | 63 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Munetaka Murakami | Daniel Lynch IV | 62 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Zack Gelof | Yusei Kikuchi | 61 | C+ Value |
| #25 | Kyle Stowers | Shota Imanaga | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Nolan Arenado | Kyle Freeland | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Randal Grichuk | Daniel Lynch IV | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Mickey Moniak | Michael Soroka | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Christian Walker | Logan Gilbert | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #80 | CJ Abrams | Drew Anderson | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #83 | Cody Bellinger | Nick Martinez | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Anthony Kay | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #92 | Isaac Paredes | Logan Gilbert | 48 | D Below |
| #101 | Cody Bellinger | Drew Rasmussen | 47 | D Below |
| #127 | Carlos Cortes | Yusei Kikuchi | 45 | D Below |
| #139 | Brandon Marsh | Dustin May | 44 | D Below |
| #142 | Dane Myers | JR Ritchie | 43 | D Below |
| #148 | Tommy Edman | Michael King | 42 | D Below |
| #165 | Nick Loftin | Anthony Kay | 40 | D Below |
| #168 | Chase Meidroth | Daniel Lynch IV | 39 | D Below |
| #206 | Brenton Doyle | Daniel Lynch IV | 35 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Randal Grichuk, Mickey Moniak, Christian Walker, CJ Abrams, Cody Bellinger, Vinnie Pasquantino, Isaac Paredes, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Cortes, Brandon Marsh, Dane Myers, Tommy Edman, Nick Loftin, Chase Meidroth, Brenton Doyle
How we approach a home run promo
A recurring home run promotion turns one day a week into a single-question day: which bat do you put the credit on? TheHomeRuns.org answers it the same way every other day — every MLB batter is scored on 30+ signals (barrel-rate matchup, the opposing starter's home-run rate, park factor, weather, recent form) and the board is ranked by home run probability. The model score you see on each pick is that composite, 0–100.
Two things we do not do. We do not publish promo terms — amounts, boosts, eligibility and availability are the sportsbook's, they change without notice, and we have no way to verify them, so check the book's own promotions page. And we do not hide bad days: every board is graded the next morning against real results, misses included, on the track record and in the dated archive. The whole reason this page is worth reading on a promo morning is that you can check what it said the last time.
Questions
Dinger Tuesday is the name used for a recurring sportsbook promotion on home run props — books such as FanDuel have run recurring home run promos. The terms, eligibility and availability are set by the sportsbook and change without notice, so TheHomeRuns.org does not publish them: check the book's own promotions page for what is live today. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. What we publish is the model's ranked home run board for the day, and the graded result of every past board.
This page is the graded record for September 22, 2026, not a live board. Today's ranked picks are at https://thehomeruns.org/dinger-tuesday-picks. Every board on this site is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses. Not gambling advice.
Across 177 graded slates this season, 15.5% of our top-50 picks homered against a 10.8% league field rate — about 1.4x the field. Every board is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses, and the dated archive on this site stays up.
Graded promo-day archive
Not gambling advice. TheHomeRuns.org publishes model output and its graded record; nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by FanDuel or any sportsbook, and we do not state any promotion's terms, credit amounts, odds or eligibility — check the sportsbook's own promotions page. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.