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Study Day
📅 2026-07-02
0
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
21
HRs in Slate
81%
Coverage
148
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
12 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
6 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jared Jones: {'batter': 'Kyle Schwarber', 'rank': 1, 'score': 79.0}, {'batter': 'Bryce Harper', 'rank': 3, 'score': 72.0}, {'batter': 'Brandon Marsh', 'rank': 11, 'score': 64.0}
Randy Vásquez: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 2, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 4, 'score': 71.0}, {'batter': 'Freddie Freeman', 'rank': 14, 'score': 64.0}, {'batter': 'Mookie Betts', 'rank': 15, 'score': 63.0}
Roki Sasaki: {'batter': 'Manny Machado', 'rank': 6, 'score': 68.0}, {'batter': 'Ty France', 'rank': 7, 'score': 67.0}, {'batter': 'Gavin Sheets', 'rank': 8, 'score': 66.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Jared Jones | 54.7% | 79 | 4.8 | 1.16 | · | 13.5% | |
| 2 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Randy Vásquez | 35.1% | 75 | 5.1 | 1.22 | · | 14.9% | |
| 3 | — | Bryce Harper | Jared Jones | 53.0% | 72 | 4.8 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | |
| 4 | — | Max Muncy | Randy Vásquez | 22.8% | 71 | 5.1 | 1.22 | ❄ | 14.0% | |
| 5 | — | Junior Caminero | Stephen Kolek | 40.0% | 69 | 4.6 | 1.06 | 🔥 | 9.9% | |
| 6 | ✅ | Manny Machado | Roki Sasaki | 34.4% | 68 | 5.4 | 1.22 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | 103.2 mph · 408ft · 31.0° |
| 7 | — | Ty France | Roki Sasaki | 40.5% | 67 | 5.4 | 1.22 | · | 11.3% | |
| 8 | — | Gavin Sheets | Roki Sasaki | 41.0% | 66 | 5.4 | 1.22 | 🌤️ | 9.9% | |
| 9 | ✅ | Mickey Moniak | Ryan Gusto | 30.1% | 66 | 3.8 | 1.14 | · | 11.7% | 105.1 mph · 407ft · 25.0° |
| 10 | — | Jake Bauers | Chase Burns | 41.5% | 65 | 3.2 | 1.11 | · | 10.7% | |
| 11 | — | Brandon Marsh | Jared Jones | 37.9% | 64 | 4.8 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 9.5% | |
| 12 | — | Esmerlyn Valdez | Alan Rangel | 32.1% | 64 | 2.8 | 1.16 | · | 9.4% | |
| 13 | — | Owen Caissie | Michael Lorenzen | 30.7% | 64 | 5.0 | 1.14 | 🌤️ | 11.6% | |
| 14 | — | Freddie Freeman | Randy Vásquez | 17.5% | 64 | 5.1 | 1.22 | · | 12.7% | |
| 15 | — | Mookie Betts | Randy Vásquez | 28.9% | 63 | 5.1 | 1.22 | · | 10.7% |
All 21 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Manny Machado | 34.4% | 103.2 | 408ft | 31.0° |
| 9 | Mickey Moniak | 30.1% | 105.1 | 407ft | 25.0° |
| 28 | Carter Jensen | 20.6% | 106.7 | 449ft | 28.0° |
| 35 | Jackson Merrill | 10.5% | 99.2 | 383ft | 29.0° |
| 40 | Jordan Walker | 14.4% | 104.4 | 396ft | 35.0° |
| 43 | Garrett Mitchell | 14.6% | 100.3 | 366ft | 31.0° |
| 45 | Jake McCarthy | 11.9% | 103.8 | 429ft | 30.0° |
| 49 | Sal Stewart | 16.4% | 102.7 | 402ft | 27.0° |
| 51 | Endy Rodríguez | 15.8% | 102.9 | 395ft | 32.0° |
| 71 | Cedric Mullins | 16.3% | 96.9 | 385ft | 32.0° |
| 73 | Alec Burleson | 10.7% | 107.4 | 395ft | 41.0° |
| 78 | Elias Díaz | 13.9% | 102.3 | 414ft | 28.0° |
| 87 | Hao-Yu Lee | 8.4% | 98.9 | 383ft | 35.0° |
| 101 | Colt Keith | 8.0% | 102.3 | 405ft | 27.0° |
| 103 | Isaac Collins | 6.7% | 103.5 | 428ft | 31.0° |
| 109 | Nathan Church | 8.0% | 97.5 | 392ft | 31.0° |
| 114 | Jose Trevino | 8.2% | 98.5 | 358ft | 41.0° |
| 126 | Nick Gonzales | 7.4% | 99.0 | 387ft | 34.0° |
| 130 | TJ Friedl | 9.1% | 99.0 | 395ft | 31.0° |
| 135 | Chase Meidroth | 7.5% | 100.6 | 349ft | 23.0° |
| 142 | Brayan Rocchio | 6.4% | 98.4 | 380ft | 38.0° |