MLB Home Run Predictions — May 11, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-11: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 11, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
7
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
42.6 vs 35.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Ben Rice | Brandon Young | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #9 | Coby Mayo | Ryan Weathers | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #22 | Max Muncy | Trevor McDonald | 46 | D Below |
| #25 | Rafael Devers | Roki Sasaki | 45 | D Below |
| #29 | Julio Rodríguez | Peter Lambert | 44 | D Below |
| #62 | Jonathan Aranda | Kevin Gausman | 31 | D Below |
| #72 | Andrés Giménez | Drew Rasmussen | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jonathan Aranda, Andrés Giménez
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.