MLB Home Run Predictions — May 10, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-10: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 10, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
17
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
37.2 vs 28.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Matt Olson | Justin Wrobleski | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Tomoyuki Sugano | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #18 | Spencer Steer | Kai-Wei Teng | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #20 | Drake Baldwin | Justin Wrobleski | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #22 | Max Muncy | Chris Bassitt | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #23 | Bryce Harper | Tomoyuki Sugano | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Aaron Judge | Logan Henderson | 46 | D Below |
| #34 | Max Muncy | Bryce Elder | 46 | D Below |
| #124 | Jordan Walker | Walker Buehler | 29 | D Below |
| #125 | Oswald Peraza | Spencer Miles | 28 | D Below |
| #133 | Oneil Cruz | Tyler Mahle | 27 | D Below |
| #135 | Jo Adell | Spencer Miles | 26 | D Below |
| #149 | Evan Carter | Jameson Taillon | 24 | D Below |
| #163 | Nick Castellanos | Kyle Leahy | 23 | D Below |
| #164 | Junior Caminero | Payton Tolle | 22 | D Below |
| #167 | Heliot Ramos | Bubba Chandler | 22 | D Below |
| #187 | Konnor Griffin | Tyler Mahle | 20 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jordan Walker, Oswald Peraza, Oneil Cruz, Jo Adell, Evan Carter, Nick Castellanos, Junior Caminero, Heliot Ramos, Konnor Griffin
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.