MLB Home Run Predictions — May 9, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-09: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 9, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
18
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
0/15
Top-15 picks that homered
32.8 vs 28.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #21 | Andy Pages | Spencer Strider | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #26 | Kyle Schwarber | Kyle Freeland | 48 | D Below |
| #50 | Brent Rooker | Shane Baz | 40 | D Below |
| #62 | James Wood | Janson Junk | 37 | D Below |
| #64 | Byron Buxton | Tanner Bibee | 37 | D Below |
| #68 | Josh Jung | Edward Cabrera | 36 | D Below |
| #71 | Willi Castro | Aaron Nola | 35 | D Below |
| #82 | Colson Montgomery | Luis Castillo | 34 | D Below |
| #85 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Burch Smith | 33 | D Below |
| #107 | Miguel Vargas | Luis Castillo | 30 | D Below |
| #118 | Ernie Clement | Jack Kochanowicz | 28 | D Below |
| #121 | Jakob Marsee | Zack Littell | 28 | D Below |
| #127 | Jake Bauers | Cam Schlittler | 28 | D Below |
| #139 | Jesús Sánchez | Jack Kochanowicz | 26 | D Below |
| #143 | Jake Burger | Edward Cabrera | 26 | D Below |
| #147 | Xavier Edwards | Zack Littell | 25 | D Below |
| #149 | Alec Bohm | Kyle Freeland | 25 | D Below |
| #159 | Manny Machado | Dustin May | 24 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
James Wood, Byron Buxton, Josh Jung, Willi Castro, Colson Montgomery, Bobby Witt Jr., Miguel Vargas, Ernie Clement, Jakob Marsee, Jake Bauers, Jesús Sánchez, Jake Burger, Xavier Edwards, Alec Bohm, Manny Machado
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.