MLB Home Run Predictions — May 8, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-08: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 8, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
17
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
25.2 vs 28.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Jacob Lopez | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #22 | Hunter Goodman | Jesús Luzardo | 48 | D Below |
| #26 | Kyle Schwarber | Chase Dollander | 47 | D Below |
| #39 | Freddie Freeman | Chris Sale | 45 | D Below |
| #74 | Munetaka Murakami | Emerson Hancock | 34 | D Below |
| #115 | Byron Buxton | Parker Messick | 29 | D Below |
| #150 | Mark Vientos | Ryne Nelson | 23 | D Below |
| #154 | Justin Crawford | Chase Dollander | 22 | D Below |
| #169 | Luke Raley | Sean Burke | 21 | D Below |
| #172 | Xavier Edwards | Foster Griffin | 20 | D Below |
| #191 | Wilyer Abreu | Jesse Scholtens | 17 | D Below |
| #204 | Bo Naylor | Connor Prielipp | 14 | D Below |
| #205 | Josh Naylor | Sean Burke | 14 | D Below |
| #208 | Julio Rodríguez | Sean Burke | 13 | D Below |
| #212 | Nolan Arenado | Nolan McLean | 12 | D Below |
| #215 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Jesse Scholtens | 11 | D Below |
| #241 | Rafael Devers | Carmen Mlodzinski | 5 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Munetaka Murakami, Byron Buxton, Mark Vientos, Justin Crawford, Luke Raley, Xavier Edwards, Wilyer Abreu, Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor, Julio Rodríguez, Nolan Arenado, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rafael Devers
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.