MLB Home Run Predictions — May 1, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-01: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 1, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
25
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
31.8 vs 28.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Matt Olson | Jose Quintana | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #9 | Michael Harris II | Jose Quintana | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #10 | Pete Alonso | Will Warren | 49 | D Below |
| #11 | Mickey Moniak | Grant Holmes | 49 | D Below |
| #37 | Munetaka Murakami | Germán Márquez | 41 | D Below |
| #43 | Geraldo Perdomo | Colin Rea | 39 | D Below |
| #62 | Colson Montgomery | Germán Márquez | 37 | D Below |
| #63 | Jac Caglianone | Bryan Woo | 37 | D Below |
| #69 | Randy Arozarena | Cole Ragans | 36 | D Below |
| #71 | Junior Caminero | Robbie Ray | 35 | D Below |
| #80 | Kazuma Okamoto | Simeon Woods Richardson | 34 | D Below |
| #84 | Rhys Hoskins | J.T. Ginn | 34 | D Below |
| #98 | Jorge Soler | Christian Scott | 32 | D Below |
| #99 | Brent Rooker | Joey Cantillo | 32 | D Below |
| #112 | Julio Rodríguez | Cole Ragans | 31 | D Below |
| #117 | Alec Burleson | Emmet Sheehan | 30 | D Below |
| #122 | Yandy Díaz | Robbie Ray | 29 | D Below |
| #129 | Nolan Gorman | Emmet Sheehan | 28 | D Below |
| #156 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Bryan Woo | 26 | D Below |
| #160 | Byron Buxton | Patrick Corbin | 25 | D Below |
| #217 | Bryan Reynolds | Brady Singer | 17 | D Below |
| #226 | Bryson Stott | Eury Pérez | 15 | D Below |
| #234 | Jarren Duran | Mike Burrows | 14 | D Below |
| #238 | Danny Jansen | Jack Flaherty | 12 | D Below |
| #241 | Marcell Ozuna | Brady Singer | 12 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Colson Montgomery, Jac Caglianone, Randy Arozarena, Junior Caminero, Kazuma Okamoto, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, Brent Rooker, Julio Rodríguez, Alec Burleson, Yandy Díaz, Nolan Gorman, Vinnie Pasquantino, Byron Buxton, Bryan Reynolds, Bryson Stott, Jarren Duran, Danny Jansen, Marcell Ozuna
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.