MLB Home Run Predictions — April 30, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-30: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 30, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
23
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
6/15
Top-15 picks that homered
40.5 vs 31.5
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | Chris Bassitt | 80 | A Excellent |
| #7 | Nathaniel Lowe | Michael Lorenzen | 80 | A Excellent |
| #10 | Yordan Alvarez | Brandon Young | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #11 | Kyle Schwarber | Logan Webb | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Adley Rutschman | Peter Lambert | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #15 | Byron Buxton | Kevin Gausman | 65 | C+ Value |
| #37 | MJ Melendez | Miles Mikolas | 48 | D Below |
| #43 | CJ Abrams | Freddy Peralta | 43 | D Below |
| #52 | Jeremiah Jackson | Lance McCullers Jr. | 40 | D Below |
| #62 | Jordan Walker | Paul Skenes | 35 | D Below |
| #67 | Elias Díaz | Jeffrey Springs | 34 | D Below |
| #69 | Jeremiah Jackson | Peter Lambert | 33 | D Below |
| #70 | TJ Friedl | Michael Lorenzen | 33 | D Below |
| #73 | Ryan Jeffers | Kevin Gausman | 32 | D Below |
| #78 | Brandon Lowe | Hunter Dobbins | 30 | D Below |
| #86 | JJ Wetherholt | Paul Skenes | 28 | D Below |
| #114 | Tyler Freeman | Andrew Abbott | 23 | D Below |
| #129 | Maikel Garcia | Jeffrey Springs | 19 | D Below |
| #131 | Cam Smith | Brandon Young | 18 | D Below |
| #133 | Trea Turner | Logan Webb | 18 | D Below |
| #145 | William Contreras | Michael Soroka | 17 | D Below |
| #147 | Daulton Varsho | Bailey Ober | 17 | D Below |
| #161 | Sal Frelick | Michael Soroka | 15 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jeremiah Jackson, Jordan Walker, Elias Díaz, Jeremiah Jackson, TJ Friedl, Ryan Jeffers, Brandon Lowe, JJ Wetherholt, Tyler Freeman, Maikel Garcia, Cam Smith, Trea Turner, William Contreras, Daulton Varsho, Sal Frelick
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.