2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 5 Jac Caglianone 5 HRs · 6 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 7 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 8 Owen Caissie 4 HRs · 9 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 10 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs · 11 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 5 Jac Caglianone 5 HRs · 6 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 7 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 8 Owen Caissie 4 HRs · 9 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 10 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs · 11 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 4 HRs
SEA
@ 6:40p
PIT
PNC Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 0.80× Wind 2 mph out 53°F open
+0
6 mph · out
76°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
4 mph · out
71°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
3 mph · slight_out
69°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-7
3 mph · cross
68°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
2 mph · in
67°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.64

53°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: -2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft RHP
0.80 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.25 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 61 🔵 C+ · · 31 0.288 92.9 9.1% 32.4% vs RHP 396 16.7% 36.4% 24.7% 29
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 53 🟠 C +575 🌤️ WARM 73 0.255 90.7 9.4% 37.8% vs RHP 385 18.2% 10.0% 22.2% 14
3 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 40 ⚪ D +500 🌧️ COOL 145 0.187 90.0 7.1% 20.0% vs RHP 410 18.6% 9.1% 8.8% 29
4 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 35 ⚪ D +305 · 185 0.143 87.3 8.0% 13.6% vs RHP 390 14.3% 14.3% 6.9% 11
5 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 32 ⚪ D +625 🌤️ WARM 197 0.162 91.7 6.3% 20.7% vs RHP 385 8.8% 0.0% 9.6% 7
6 Cole Young Cole Young 30 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 208 0.127 88.1 5.2% 10.9% vs RHP 385 9.3% 25.0% 6.3% 39
7 J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford 29 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 210 0.167 · 6.7% 30.0% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 14
8 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 27 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 221 0.117 88.0 5.3% 17.1% vs RHP 390 10.2% 8.3% 6.6% 31
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo RHP
0.86 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.58 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 55 🟠 C +305 🌤️ WARM 59 0.260 90.4 9.5% 25.9% vs RHP 392 16.7% 25.0% 21.7% 32
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 46 ⚪ D +500 🔥 HOT 103 0.195 91.4 8.9% 16.7% vs RHP 410 13.9% 25.0% 15.5% 34
3 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 40 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 140 0.187 86.7 8.1% 18.5% vs RHP 395 12.3% 16.7% 10.4% 35
4 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 37 ⚪ D +525 🌧️ COOL 166 0.170 89.7 6.9% 20.5% vs RHP 378 16.7% 9.1% 8.4% 33
5 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 31 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 200 0.112 89.4 7.9% 14.8% vs RHP 414 7.9% 14.3% 10.0% 8
6 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 20 ⚪ D · · 237 0.083 86.1 4.9% 10.0% vs RHP 403 4.3% 8.3% 5.5% 34
7 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 11 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 244 0.059 83.4 2.3% 9.1% vs RHP 410 2.9% 0.0% 5.5% 35
🏟️
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