PHI
@
6:45p
WSH
Stadium Conditions
Nationals Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.98×
Wind 2 mph in
61°F
open
+4
5 mph · out
78°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
4 mph · out
75°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
4 mph · out
73°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
4 mph · slight_out
71°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
4 mph · slight_out
68°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.88
61°F, wind 2 mph W (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kyle Schwarber | 80 | 🟢 A | +1000 | · | 1 | 0.344 | 93.2 | 14.2% | 46.3% vs RHP | 404 | 27.8% | 33.3% | 36.7% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Bryce Harper | 68 | 🔵 C+ | +320 | 🌧️ COOL | 16 | 0.251 | 90.3 | 10.9% | 40.0% vs RHP | 401 | 20.3% | 25.0% | 34.9% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Brandon Marsh | 52 | 🟠 C | +500 | 🌧️ COOL | 79 | 0.173 | 89.9 | 8.6% | 21.6% vs RHP | 391 | 12.7% | 25.0% | 17.7% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Bryson Stott | 44 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 120 | 0.152 | 89.2 | 8.1% | 9.8% vs RHP | 392 | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Alec Bohm | 42 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 126 | 0.135 | 89.7 | 6.4% | 17.2% vs RHP | 385 | 11.1% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Trea Turner | 35 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 180 | 0.104 | 88.8 | 6.7% | 13.6% vs RHP | 394 | 9.6% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 26 |
| 7 |
|
J.T. Realmuto | 34 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 186 | 0.115 | · | 6.9% | 21.7% vs RHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 23 |
| 8 |
|
Justin Crawford | 27 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 218 | 0.099 | 86.8 | 3.4% | 7.4% vs RHP | 382 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 18 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 73 | 🟡 B | +280 | · | 6 | 0.252 | 95.9 | 14.7% | 34.9% vs RHP | 408 | 26.2% | 25.0% | 35.0% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 24 | 0.235 | 88.5 | 10.0% | 25.0% vs RHP | 399 | 20.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams | 58 | 🟠 C | +370 | · | 47 | 0.236 | 90.1 | 9.6% | 29.2% vs RHP | 389 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 32.0% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 48 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 91 | 0.196 | 89.1 | 7.2% | 11.1% vs RHP | 378 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 27 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 40 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 143 | 0.155 | 87.5 | 8.0% | 11.5% vs RHP | 403 | 8.5% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 35 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 155 | 0.148 | 89.2 | 7.5% | 20.6% vs RHP | 391 | 9.4% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 13 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 242 | 0.044 | 84.5 | · | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 26 |