2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 5 Jac Caglianone 5 HRs · 6 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 7 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 8 Owen Caissie 4 HRs · 9 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 10 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs · 11 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 5 Jac Caglianone 5 HRs · 6 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 7 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 8 Owen Caissie 4 HRs · 9 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 10 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs · 11 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 4 HRs
PHI
@ 6:45p
WSH
Nationals Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open
Park 0.98× Wind 2 mph in 61°F open
+4
5 mph · out
78°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
4 mph · out
75°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
4 mph · out
73°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
4 mph · slight_out
71°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
4 mph · slight_out
68°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.88

61°F, wind 2 mph W (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.95 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.07 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 80 🟢 A +1000 · 1 0.344 93.2 14.2% 46.3% vs RHP 404 27.8% 33.3% 36.7% 26
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 68 🔵 C+ +320 🌧️ COOL 16 0.251 90.3 10.9% 40.0% vs RHP 401 20.3% 25.0% 34.9% 33
3 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 52 🟠 C +500 🌧️ COOL 79 0.173 89.9 8.6% 21.6% vs RHP 391 12.7% 25.0% 17.7% 28
4 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 44 ⚪ D +525 ❄ COLD 120 0.152 89.2 8.1% 9.8% vs RHP 392 10.1% 8.3% 9.2% 33
5 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 42 ⚪ D +625 🌤️ WARM 126 0.135 89.7 6.4% 17.2% vs RHP 385 11.1% 18.2% 10.5% 37
6 Trea Turner Trea Turner 35 ⚪ D +525 🌧️ COOL 180 0.104 88.8 6.7% 13.6% vs RHP 394 9.6% 0.0% 8.9% 26
7 J.T. Realmuto J.T. Realmuto 34 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 186 0.115 · 6.9% 21.7% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 23
8 Justin Crawford Justin Crawford 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 218 0.099 86.8 3.4% 7.4% vs RHP 382 3.8% 0.0% 7.6% 18
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.85 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.01 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 73 🟡 B +280 · 6 0.252 95.9 14.7% 34.9% vs RHP 408 26.2% 25.0% 35.0% 32
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 66 🔵 C+ +525 🌧️ COOL 24 0.235 88.5 10.0% 25.0% vs RHP 399 20.0% 30.0% 30.0% 28
3 Cj Abrams Cj Abrams 58 🟠 C +370 · 47 0.236 90.1 9.6% 29.2% vs RHP 389 50.0% 0.0% 32.0% 32
4 Keibert Ruiz Keibert Ruiz 48 ⚪ D +575 🌧️ COOL 91 0.196 89.1 7.2% 11.1% vs RHP 378 15.4% 11.1% 12.6% 27
5 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 40 ⚪ D +625 ❄ COLD 143 0.155 87.5 8.0% 11.5% vs RHP 403 8.5% 0.0% 10.1% 35
6 Jacob Young Jacob Young 39 ⚪ D · · 155 0.148 89.2 7.5% 20.6% vs RHP 391 9.4% 0.0% 10.6% 22
7 Nasim Nunez Nasim Nunez 13 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 242 0.044 84.5 · 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 26
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