2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SEA
@ 6:40p
PIT
PNC Park · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 0.80× Wind 6 mph out 77°F open
+3
9 mph · out
75°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
9 mph · out
75°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
8 mph · out
74°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · out
73°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
6 mph · out
72°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.80

77°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller RHP
0.74 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.27 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Colt Emerson Colt Emerson 57 🟠 C +625 🌧️ COOL 46 0.272 85.9 5.6% 55.6% vs RHP 370 20.0% 40.0% 29.7% 19
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 57 🟠 C +390 🌤️ WARM 48 0.255 90.7 10.2% 37.8% vs RHP 385 18.5% 11.1% 22.3% 14
3 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 43 ⚪ D +475 🌧️ COOL 122 0.187 90.0 7.7% 20.0% vs RHP 410 19.0% 9.1% 8.9% 33
4 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 39 ⚪ D +625 🌤️ WARM 145 0.162 91.7 6.9% 20.7% vs RHP 385 9.0% 20.0% 13.1% 12
5 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 36 ⚪ D +245 · 167 0.143 87.3 8.6% 13.6% vs RHP 390 12.7% 0.0% 6.9% 11
6 Cole Young Cole Young 31 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 185 0.127 88.1 5.7% 10.9% vs RHP 385 8.1% 16.7% 6.1% 43
7 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 29 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 196 0.117 88.0 5.7% 17.1% vs RHP 390 10.3% 8.3% 6.7% 34
8 Victor Robles Victor Robles 20 ⚪ D · · 216 0.091 83.5 5.0% 16.7% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 26
George Kirby
George Kirby RHP
0.85 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.18 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 55 🟠 C +390 · 56 0.260 90.4 8.6% 25.9% vs RHP 392 16.9% 25.0% 22.1% 35
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 47 ⚪ D +525 🔥 HOT 99 0.195 91.4 8.1% 16.7% vs RHP 410 14.1% 33.3% 15.8% 36
3 Endy Rodríguez Endy Rodríguez 46 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 102 0.176 92.4 8.8% 23.1% vs RHP 394 18.2% 25.0% 15.4% 19
4 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 41 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 130 0.187 86.7 7.3% 18.5% vs RHP 395 12.5% 18.2% 10.6% 35
5 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 39 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 146 0.170 89.7 6.2% 20.5% vs RHP 378 17.0% 18.2% 10.2% 34
6 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 31 ⚪ D +625 🌧️ COOL 183 0.112 89.4 7.2% 14.8% vs RHP 414 8.1% 14.3% 10.6% 10
7 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 20 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 217 0.083 86.1 4.5% 10.0% vs RHP 403 4.3% 8.3% 5.8% 37
8 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 12 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 224 0.059 83.4 2.1% 9.1% vs RHP 410 2.9% 0.0% 5.7% 38
9 Jared Triolo Jared Triolo 12 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 225 0.056 87.6 2.5% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 26
🏟️
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