2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
NYY
@ 6:40p
DET
Comerica Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph in 74°F open
+4
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
7 mph · slight_out
73°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · slight_out
72°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
3 mph · slight_out
71°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.03

74°F, wind 3 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Casey Mize
Casey Mize RHP
0.49 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -1.04 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ben Rice Ben Rice 68 🔵 C+ +305 · 18 0.324 92.0 10.4% 36.7% vs RHP 390 26.1% 33.3% 24.9% 37
2 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 61 🔵 C+ +500 · 35 0.249 87.2 9.1% 25.0% vs RHP 390 19.5% 36.4% 30.5% 39
3 Spencer Jones Spencer Jones 51 🟠 C +575 🌤️ WARM 73 0.234 96.8 4.9% 30.8% vs RHP 443 15.4% 28.6% 22.5% 13
4 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 44 ⚪ D +475 🌧️ COOL 112 0.189 89.1 7.5% 12.1% vs RHP 379 12.9% 16.7% 8.7% 40
5 Jasson Dominguez Jasson Dominguez 38 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 148 0.235 89.2 3.8% 50.0% vs RHP 353 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 25
6 Jose Caballero Jose Caballero 28 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 198 0.142 83.8 4.6% 16.7% vs RHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 26
7 Austin Wells Austin Wells 28 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 199 0.092 89.5 7.0% 12.5% vs RHP 377 8.3% 0.0% 7.5% 2
8 Anthony Volpe Anthony Volpe 26 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 206 0.113 88.3 5.5% 0.0% vs RHP 409 2.9% 0.0% 6.6% 26
Carlos Rodón
Carlos Rodón LHP
0.76 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.18 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 65 🔵 C+ +425 🌧️ COOL 26 0.303 90.8 8.4% 27.8% vs LHP 396 21.9% 23.1% 25.6% 37
2 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 51 🟠 C +400 🌧️ COOL 74 0.192 90.0 8.7% 6.7% vs LHP 394 15.8% 23.1% 15.2% 25
3 Riley Greene Riley Greene 45 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 107 0.147 91.5 8.5% 15.4% vs LHP 393 10.4% 23.1% 20.6% 30
4 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 37 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 157 0.141 87.1 5.9% 11.1% vs LHP 377 9.8% 16.7% 7.1% 22
5 Kevin Mcgonigle Kevin Mcgonigle 33 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 176 0.139 87.8 6.7% 10.5% vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 38
6 Hao-Yu Lee Hao-Yu Lee 31 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 182 0.125 87.8 7.1% 5.6% vs LHP 382 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 19
7 Jahmai Jones Jahmai Jones 29 ⚪ D +625 🌧️ COOL 193 0.096 91.4 6.9% 13.3% vs LHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 6
8 Zach Mckinstry Zach Mckinstry 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 214 0.077 84.7 3.7% 4.4% 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 24
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.