SD
@
8:05p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 7:05p
· roof open
Park 1.05×
Wind 5 mph cross
79°F
open
+3
15 mph · cross
87°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
14 mph · slight_out
85°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
13 mph · slight_out
83°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
12 mph · slight_out
82°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
11 mph · slight_out
81°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.16
79°F, wind 5 mph S (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +265 | 🌧️ COOL | 26 | 0.222 | 91.2 | 11.2% | 22.2% vs LHP | 393 | 18.8% | 28.6% | 25.0% | 24 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 61 | 🔵 C+ | +265 | · | 32 | 0.239 | 90.2 | 12.6% | 16.7% vs LHP | 402 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 24 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 55 | 🟠 C | +245 | 🌧️ COOL | 58 | 0.182 | 89.6 | 9.7% | 33.3% vs LHP | 405 | 12.5% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 29 |
| 4 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 52 | 🟠 C | +330 | 🌤️ WARM | 70 | 0.165 | 89.5 | 8.9% | 20.0% vs LHP | 397 | 13.3% | 28.6% | 18.5% | 32 |
| 5 |
|
Michael Busch | 50 | 🟠 C | +350 | 🌧️ COOL | 81 | 0.154 | 88.5 | 11.0% | 9.1% vs LHP | 400 | 11.6% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 32 |
| 6 |
|
Carson Kelly | 45 | ⚪ D | +350 | 🌧️ COOL | 120 | 0.116 | 88.4 | 8.4% | 15.8% vs LHP | 421 | 5.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
Alex Bregman | 43 | ⚪ D | +350 | ❄ COLD | 131 | 0.126 | 87.7 | 7.1% | 7.1% vs LHP | 395 | 6.0% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 28 |
| 8 |
|
Nico Hoerner | 32 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 200 | 0.100 | 85.6 | 3.3% | 11.8% vs LHP | 383 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 43 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ty France | 61 | 🔵 C+ | +330 | · | 30 | 0.234 | 91.0 | 12.0% | 25.0% vs LHP | 393 | 18.5% | 27.3% | 33.1% | 24 |
| 2 |
|
Manny Machado | 58 | 🟠 C | +220 | 🔥 HOT | 44 | 0.200 | 90.2 | 10.9% | 18.8% vs LHP | 397 | 18.2% | 25.0% | 26.4% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 57 | 🟠 C | · | · | 48 | 0.224 | 89.2 | 10.0% | 21.9% | 396 | 14.1% | 22.2% | 27.7% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 47 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 101 | 0.134 | 90.1 | 10.7% | 15.4% vs LHP | 407 | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 32 |
| 5 |
|
Xander Bogaerts | 40 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 157 | 0.105 | 88.1 | 8.4% | 7.1% vs LHP | 395 | 9.3% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 29 |
| 6 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 39 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 165 | 0.153 | 88.2 | 7.0% | 11.1% vs LHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 11 |
| 7 |
|
Freddy Fermin ⚡ | 38 | ⚪ D | +475 | ❄ COLD | 168 | 0.107 | 86.4 | 5.9% | 40.0% vs LHP | 382 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 15.8% | 3 |