2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SD
@ 7:05p
BAL
Camden Yards · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open
Park 1.12× Wind 6 mph out 96°F open
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.46

96°F, wind 6 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Griffin Canning
Griffin Canning RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.73 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.29 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 71 🟡 B +900 · 12 0.203 95.0 11.2% 24.4% vs RHP 399 19.1% 33.3% 20.0% 41
2 Colton Cowser Colton Cowser 69 🔵 C+ +950 · 14 0.169 86.0 11.6% 23.1% vs RHP 418 20.7% 44.4% 29.1% 32
3 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 66 🔵 C+ · · 25 0.187 91.9 10.3% 13.0% vs RHP 407 16.1% 33.3% 16.0% 23
4 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 30 0.210 92.2 11.4% 27.6% vs RHP 401 13.3% 0.0% 22.5% 25
5 Jackson Holliday Jackson Holliday 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 31 0.204 88.2 11.9% 23.1% vs RHP 378 3.8% 9.1% 32.4% 26
6 Adley Rutschman Adley Rutschman 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 32 0.215 90.4 9.8% 17.9% vs RHP 400 14.3% 11.1% 20.6% 33
7 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 60 🔵 C+ +1000 ❄ COLD 47 0.197 88.9 9.3% 15.6% vs RHP 390 18.2% 0.0% 18.3% 43
8 Tyler O'Neill Tyler O'Neill 42 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 125 0.092 87.8 8.0% 11.8% vs RHP 397 8.3% 0.0% 6.5% 12
9 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 42 ⚪ D · · 130 0.099 89.6 7.0% 5.7% vs RHP 386 4.3% 8.3% 5.9% 36
Shane Baz
Shane Baz RHP
0.89 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.22 ·
6 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 62 🔵 C+ +800 · 39 0.226 89.3 9.0% 31.4% vs RHP 398 12.1% 9.1% 17.5% 25
2 Ty France Ty France 58 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 51 0.194 91.4 10.1% 31.2% vs RHP 395 14.3% 11.1% 16.6% 26
3 Manny Machado Manny Machado 54 🟠 C +950 · 67 0.168 89.8 8.5% 25.0% vs RHP 393 16.4% 16.7% 14.0% 39
4 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 49 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 82 0.133 89.7 9.5% 9.8% vs RHP 410 10.0% 16.7% 8.9% 36
5 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 106 0.126 88.2 7.7% 21.2% vs RHP 395 11.9% 10.0% 10.1% 25
6 Freddy Fermin Freddy Fermin 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 144 0.116 86.5 4.4% 4.8% vs RHP 382 6.2% 16.7% 13.4% 21
🏟️
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