SD
@
7:05p
BAL
Stadium Conditions
Camden Yards
First pitch 7:05p
· roof open
Park 1.12×
Wind 6 mph out
96°F
open
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.46
96°F, wind 6 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Alonso | 71 | 🟡 B | +900 | · | 12 | 0.203 | 95.0 | 11.2% | 24.4% vs RHP | 399 | 19.1% | 33.3% | 20.0% | 41 |
| 2 |
|
Colton Cowser | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +950 | · | 14 | 0.169 | 86.0 | 11.6% | 23.1% vs RHP | 418 | 20.7% | 44.4% | 29.1% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Coby Mayo ⚡ | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 25 | 0.187 | 91.9 | 10.3% | 13.0% vs RHP | 407 | 16.1% | 33.3% | 16.0% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
Samuel Basallo | 65 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 30 | 0.210 | 92.2 | 11.4% | 27.6% vs RHP | 401 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 22.5% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Jackson Holliday | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 31 | 0.204 | 88.2 | 11.9% | 23.1% vs RHP | 378 | 3.8% | 9.1% | 32.4% | 26 |
| 6 |
|
Adley Rutschman | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 32 | 0.215 | 90.4 | 9.8% | 17.9% vs RHP | 400 | 14.3% | 11.1% | 20.6% | 33 |
| 7 |
|
Gunnar Henderson | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +1000 | ❄ COLD | 47 | 0.197 | 88.9 | 9.3% | 15.6% vs RHP | 390 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 43 |
| 8 |
|
Tyler O'Neill | 42 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 125 | 0.092 | 87.8 | 8.0% | 11.8% vs RHP | 397 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 12 |
| 9 |
|
Taylor Ward | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 130 | 0.099 | 89.6 | 7.0% | 5.7% vs RHP | 386 | 4.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 36 |
6 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +800 | · | 39 | 0.226 | 89.3 | 9.0% | 31.4% vs RHP | 398 | 12.1% | 9.1% | 17.5% | 25 |
| 2 |
|
Ty France | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 51 | 0.194 | 91.4 | 10.1% | 31.2% vs RHP | 395 | 14.3% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 26 |
| 3 |
|
Manny Machado | 54 | 🟠 C | +950 | · | 67 | 0.168 | 89.8 | 8.5% | 25.0% vs RHP | 393 | 16.4% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 39 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 49 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 82 | 0.133 | 89.7 | 9.5% | 9.8% vs RHP | 410 | 10.0% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Xander Bogaerts ⚡ | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 106 | 0.126 | 88.2 | 7.7% | 21.2% vs RHP | 395 | 11.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 25 |
| 6 |
|
Freddy Fermin | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 144 | 0.116 | 86.5 | 4.4% | 4.8% vs RHP | 382 | 6.2% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 21 |