SEA
@
6:45p
WSH
Stadium Conditions
Nationals Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 1.07×
Wind 1 mph cross
89°F
open
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
6:45p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
7:45p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
8:45p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
9:45p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
10:45p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.28
89°F, wind 1 mph S (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Luke Raley | 78 | 🟡 B | +305 | ❄ COLD | 5 | 0.259 | 90.4 | 13.7% | 40.6% vs RHP | 385 | 21.3% | 30.0% | 39.8% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 77 | 🟡 B | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 6 | 0.254 | 93.0 | 13.3% | 29.0% vs RHP | 404 | 13.7% | 40.0% | 35.9% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Colt Emerson | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +900 | 🌤️ WARM | 24 | 0.306 | 87.8 | 7.1% | 50.0% vs RHP | 357 | 9.1% | 14.3% | 42.7% | 20 |
| 4 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 42 | 0.194 | 90.5 | 9.8% | 18.2% vs RHP | 410 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 17.2% | 43 |
| 5 |
|
Randy Arozarena | 50 | 🟠 C | +425 | · | 77 | 0.166 | 91.7 | 9.0% | 20.7% vs RHP | 385 | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 43 |
| 6 |
|
Cole Young | 43 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 116 | 0.119 | 87.9 | 7.6% | 7.9% vs RHP | 387 | 7.7% | 16.7% | 8.7% | 50 |
| 7 |
|
Josh Naylor ⚡ | 43 | ⚪ D | +450 | 🌧️ COOL | 118 | 0.111 | 87.7 | 7.3% | 16.2% vs RHP | 391 | 10.2% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 43 |
| 8 |
|
Jhonny Pereda | 39 | ⚪ D | +600 | · | 146 | 0.109 | 89.8 | 6.8% | 16.7% vs RHP | 390 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 25 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 64 | 🔵 C+ | +300 | 🌧️ COOL | 34 | 0.250 | 95.9 | 10.8% | 34.2% vs RHP | 407 | 28.0% | 25.0% | 25.3% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 58 | 🟠 C | +600 | · | 50 | 0.240 | 89.4 | 7.2% | 25.0% vs RHP | 398 | 19.4% | 30.0% | 32.9% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams ⚡ | 44 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 110 | 0.230 | 90.0 | 7.1% | 28.6% vs RHP | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 44 | ⚪ D | +575 | ❄ COLD | 111 | 0.203 | 89.7 | 5.2% | 8.8% vs RHP | 372 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 26 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 38 | ⚪ D | +550 | 🌧️ COOL | 155 | 0.164 | 87.9 | 6.1% | 12.9% vs RHP | 403 | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 41 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 37 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 159 | 0.155 | 89.3 | 5.4% | 24.1% vs RHP | 391 | 11.1% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Dylan Crews | 36 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 171 | 0.099 | 91.7 | 6.4% | 14.3% vs RHP | 414 | 16.7% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 30 |
| 8 |
|
Jorbit Vivas ⚡ | 22 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 224 | 0.086 | 83.2 | 4.1% | 4.2% vs RHP | 364 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 23 |