2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
MIA
@ 6:40p
PIT
PNC Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 0.84× Wind 5 mph out 81°F open
+4
9 mph · out
75°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · out
75°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · out
75°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · out
75°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · out
75°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.92

81°F, wind 5 mph W (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara RHP
0.98 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.18 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 55 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 62 0.259 90.1 9.2% 26.7% vs RHP 393 16.1% 18.2% 17.9% 32
2 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.180 89.8 6.8% 22.2% vs RHP 380 18.4% 37.5% 16.7% 21
3 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 45 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 105 0.195 86.4 7.3% 19.6% vs RHP 391 12.7% 27.3% 16.2% 39
4 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 138 0.162 90.9 7.7% 11.1% vs RHP 415 11.3% 16.7% 9.7% 32
5 Endy Rodríguez Endy Rodríguez 38 ⚪ D · · 153 0.109 90.2 9.2% 8.3% vs RHP 383 12.5% 25.0% 6.3% 19
6 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 223 0.075 85.5 4.6% 9.1% vs RHP 389 3.3% 16.7% 6.1% 40
7 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 17 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 231 0.053 83.9 2.5% 12.5% vs RHP 410 4.0% 14.3% 6.4% 31
8 Jared Triolo Jared Triolo 14 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 235 0.053 87.2 3.0% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 27
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft RHP
0.91 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.13 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 40 ⚪ D · · 140 0.163 91.4 8.5% 24.0% vs RHP 391 9.3% 20.0% 16.6% 19
2 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 156 0.195 85.8 5.0% 25.0% vs RHP 378 18.0% 10.0% 11.9% 38
3 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 160 0.171 90.7 7.0% 17.2% vs RHP 390 7.1% 16.7% 13.3% 29
4 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 30 ⚪ D · · 197 0.143 90.4 6.4% 10.5% vs RHP 400 6.1% 8.3% 6.2% 43
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 205 0.148 87.2 5.8% 5.7% vs RHP 396 7.6% 0.0% 6.9% 36
6 Joe Mack Joe Mack 23 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 220 0.080 90.1 5.9% 10.0% vs RHP 410 6.2% 11.1% 6.6% 25
7 Javier Sanoja Javier Sanoja 21 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 227 0.107 87.0 3.0% 0.0% vs RHP 369 5.3% 12.5% 4.7% 26
8 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 20 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 228 0.098 86.8 4.4% 5.7% vs RHP 374 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 26
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.