2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
CHC
@ 10:15p
SF
Oracle Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 10:15p · roof open
Park 0.92× Wind 10 mph cross 69°F open
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
10:15p
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
11:15p
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
12:15a
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
1:15a
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
2:15a
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.92

69°F, wind 10 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Landen Roupp
Landen Roupp RHP
0.52 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.20 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 57 🟠 C +575 🌤️ WARM 54 0.264 90.8 7.1% 34.2% vs RHP 403 24.2% 25.0% 26.8% 28
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 45 ⚪ D +425 🌤️ WARM 107 0.182 91.2 6.1% 17.4% vs RHP 392 14.9% 33.3% 16.7% 40
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 40 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 139 0.162 89.2 5.5% 23.3% vs RHP 409 12.8% 27.3% 16.7% 31
4 Michael Busch Michael Busch 35 ⚪ D +575 🌧️ COOL 177 0.158 88.7 6.0% 14.3% vs RHP 402 10.3% 8.3% 8.2% 33
5 Moises Ballesteros Moises Ballesteros 32 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 190 0.169 90.4 5.6% 21.4% vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 17
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 30 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 198 0.133 88.1 4.2% 16.3% vs RHP 395 7.6% 16.7% 7.9% 38
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 29 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 203 0.135 89.4 4.8% 11.1% vs RHP 398 10.8% 0.0% 7.0% 19
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 23 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 222 0.079 88.8 4.7% 0.0% vs RHP 418 5.2% 11.1% 5.5% 25
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 19 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 230 0.101 85.9 2.0% 4.9% vs RHP 383 6.0% 0.0% 6.1% 47
Javier Assad
Javier Assad RHP
1.03 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.07 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 55 🟠 C +500 🌧️ COOL 65 0.238 89.4 8.3% 23.5% vs RHP 393 19.0% 15.4% 13.1% 52
2 Willy Adames Willy Adames 50 🟠 C +525 🌤️ WARM 78 0.200 89.2 7.2% 19.6% vs RHP 385 14.3% 25.0% 15.2% 33
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 46 ⚪ D +425 · 100 0.180 91.8 7.4% 17.1% vs RHP 401 13.2% 15.4% 13.6% 34
4 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 40 ⚪ D +625 🔥 HOT 136 0.159 88.3 6.1% 15.6% vs RHP 397 6.2% 23.1% 11.5% 43
5 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 31 ⚪ D +950 🔥 HOT 191 0.135 84.9 3.9% 17.6% vs RHP 393 4.0% 12.5% 8.6% 22
6 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 28 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 204 0.129 87.7 3.6% 9.7% vs RHP 363 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% 52
7 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 21 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 226 0.112 · 1.5% 1.7% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 57
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.