2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 3 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 4 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 9 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Joc Pederson 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 3 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 4 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 9 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Joc Pederson 4 HRs
NYY
@ 7:10p
BOS
Fenway Park · 13 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 0.98× Wind 1 mph slight_out 66°F open
+3
3 mph · out
76°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
1 mph · out
76°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
2 mph · out
74°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
2 mph · out
72°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
3 mph · slight_out
71°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.98

66°F, wind 1 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle LHP
0.86 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.65 ·
5 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ben Rice Ben Rice 71 🟡 B +390 🌧️ COOL 9 0.309 91.9 10.1% 45.5% vs LHP 390 25.0% 30.8% 39.0% 40
2 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 64 🔵 C+ +390 🌤️ WARM 23 0.263 86.9 8.8% 42.1% vs LHP 390 20.5% 41.7% 27.9% 40
3 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 46 ⚪ D +500 · 99 0.187 89.1 7.3% 17.4% vs LHP 379 12.3% 15.4% 13.9% 39
4 Austin Wells Austin Wells 31 ⚪ D +525 🌧️ COOL 186 0.094 89.3 6.7% 9.1% vs LHP 377 7.8% 0.0% 8.4% 8
5 Jose Caballero Jose Caballero 29 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 193 0.136 83.9 4.4% 30.0% vs LHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 30
Will Warren
Will Warren RHP
0.87 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.13 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 57 🟠 C +400 🌧️ COOL 48 0.229 90.0 9.3% 33.3% vs RHP 402 18.7% 15.4% 27.3% 34
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 49 ⚪ D +400 · 83 0.173 89.8 8.9% 13.0% vs RHP 402 13.3% 25.0% 16.1% 38
3 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 46 ⚪ D +500 🌧️ COOL 97 0.162 89.8 8.7% 36.7% vs RHP 396 14.7% 16.7% 15.5% 32
4 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 39 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 132 0.175 86.4 6.2% 15.4% vs RHP 370 9.5% 7.7% 10.1% 43
5 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 36 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 156 0.137 85.2 4.6% 17.4% vs RHP 388 7.0% 25.0% 13.7% 36
6 Carlos Narvaez Carlos Narvaez 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 204 0.088 91.0 6.4% 11.1% vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 10
7 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 27 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 207 0.093 86.0 6.2% 2.9% vs RHP 388 3.6% 0.0% 6.4% 24
8 Masataka Yoshida Masataka Yoshida 23 ⚪ D +850 ❄ COLD 216 0.094 88.4 3.2% 3.3% vs RHP 393 3.7% 0.0% 6.5% 18
🏟️
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