NYY
@
7:10p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof open
Park 0.95×
Wind 4 mph out
60°F
open
+3
5 mph · out
79°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · slight_out
78°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
6 mph · slight_out
76°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
74°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · slight_out
72°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.85
60°F, wind 4 mph WSW (out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
5 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ben Rice | 78 | 🟡 B | +390 | · | 1 | 0.314 | 91.9 | 12.8% | 50.0% vs LHP | 390 | 25.4% | 33.3% | 37.0% | 35 |
| 2 |
|
Paul Goldschmidt | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +400 | · | 5 | 0.239 | 86.9 | 11.1% | 35.3% vs LHP | 390 | 20.9% | 45.5% | 30.6% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Cody Bellinger | 52 | 🟠 C | +475 | · | 36 | 0.185 | 89.1 | 9.2% | 17.4% vs LHP | 379 | 12.5% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 37 |
| 4 |
|
Austin Wells | 36 | ⚪ D | +575 | ❄ COLD | 88 | 0.094 | 89.3 | 8.4% | 9.1% vs LHP | 377 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 7 |
| 5 |
|
Jose Caballero ⚡ | 34 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 96 | 0.137 | 83.9 | 5.6% | 30.0% vs LHP | 371 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 26 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 55 | 🟠 C | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 29 | 0.229 | 90.0 | 8.9% | 33.3% vs RHP | 402 | 18.9% | 16.7% | 27.0% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 47 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 49 | 0.174 | 89.8 | 8.6% | 13.0% vs RHP | 402 | 13.5% | 27.3% | 14.0% | 36 |
| 3 |
|
Jarren Duran ⚡ | 44 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 62 | 0.162 | 89.8 | 8.4% | 36.7% vs RHP | 396 | 14.9% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 36 | ⚪ D | +750 | ❄ COLD | 86 | 0.168 | 86.4 | 6.0% | 15.4% vs RHP | 370 | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 40 |
| 5 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 31 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 103 | 0.138 | 85.2 | 4.4% | 17.4% vs RHP | 388 | 5.7% | 18.2% | 9.7% | 34 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 120 | 0.082 | 91.0 | 6.2% | 11.1% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Marcelo Mayer ⚡ | 24 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 121 | 0.089 | 86.0 | 5.9% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 22 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida ⚡ | 21 | ⚪ D | +950 | ❄ COLD | 124 | 0.094 | 88.4 | 3.1% | 3.3% vs RHP | 393 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 16 |