2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
MIN
@ 6:40p
DET
Comerica Park · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 0.90× Wind 2 mph in 76°F open
+0
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · slight_out
74°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.90

76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley RHP
0.84 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.24 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 62 🔵 C+ +900 · 26 0.287 90.5 11.0% 31.7% vs RHP 397 21.7% 27.3% 25.9% 35
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 54 🟠 C +480 🌧️ COOL 53 0.237 91.0 9.5% 26.7% vs RHP 379 14.6% 33.3% 24.9% 14
3 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 46 ⚪ D +550 🌤️ WARM 102 0.180 90.6 10.9% 18.2% vs RHP 396 14.3% 16.7% 14.1% 28
4 Riley Greene Riley Greene 39 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 148 0.147 91.1 10.3% 10.5% vs RHP 399 7.8% 16.7% 9.7% 31
5 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 30 ⚪ D · · 196 0.144 86.9 7.1% 12.0% vs RHP 370 8.6% 0.0% 7.2% 27
6 Gleyber Torres Gleyber Torres 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 199 0.103 84.6 7.5% 8.3% vs RHP 395 6.1% 20.0% 8.9% 14
7 Kevin Mcgonigle Kevin Mcgonigle 28 ⚪ D +900 · 203 0.129 88.0 8.8% 5.6% vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 36
8 Colt Keith Colt Keith 18 ⚪ D +1000 ❄ COLD 226 0.071 88.2 6.1% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 24
9 Zach Mckinstry Zach Mckinstry 12 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 230 0.046 84.6 4.2% 3.7% vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 21
Troy Melton
Troy Melton RHP
0.43 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -1.03 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 60 🔵 C+ +800 🌧️ COOL 33 0.309 90.2 9.2% 35.4% vs RHP 398 30.2% 22.2% 19.8% 26
2 Kody Clemens Kody Clemens 48 ⚪ D · · 91 0.231 92.6 8.2% 16.2% vs RHP 396 8.0% 18.2% 19.4% 37
3 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 36 ⚪ D · · 165 0.171 87.6 5.0% 19.4% vs RHP 371 13.8% 18.2% 13.4% 40
4 Tristan Gray Tristan Gray 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 190 0.134 89.9 6.0% 18.8% vs RHP 389 11.8% 11.1% 6.9% 28
5 Josh Bell Josh Bell 29 ⚪ D · · 200 0.125 90.0 6.8% 16.7% vs RHP 405 4.5% 10.0% 6.6% 29
6 Royce Lewis Royce Lewis 28 ⚪ D +1000 ❄ COLD 205 0.105 87.6 7.1% 21.4% vs RHP 382 12.0% 0.0% 7.4% 6
7 Trevor Larnach Trevor Larnach 25 ⚪ D · · 213 0.137 86.3 5.1% 10.3% vs RHP 395 3.8% 0.0% 6.3% 26
8 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 16 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 227 0.078 84.1 3.6% 5.9% vs RHP 367 1.9% 0.0% 4.7% 36
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.