TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

MIL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Brice Turang conv 10 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 9 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 93

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●●○○○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●○○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — C ●○○○○

FADE MIL Bullpen Proxy · MIL

leak 42

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●○○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 18.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy — 0.247 · 92.7 · 13.1% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C+ 63

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C 57

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Jax — 0.195 · 91.6 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· MIL Brice Turang vs Jax Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 20.6% F B O D 48

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Proxy — 0.160 · 91.1 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 48

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 46

· TB Nick Fortes vs Proxy — 0.117 · 85.4 · 2.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 31

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Proxy — 0.162 · 85.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 36

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· MIL William Contreras vs Jax — 0.147 · 90.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Proxy — 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Jax — 0.132 · 89.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Proxy — 0.138 · 88.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 86.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· MIL David Hamilton vs Jax Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 31

· TB Taylor Walls vs Proxy — 0.075 · 85.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 25

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for MIL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 8:00p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 57 C — COOL 2 0.218 92.1 10.8% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 18.3% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C — · 3 0.195 91.6 10.2% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 16.4% 33

3 Brice Turang 48 D — · 4 0.181 90.3 8.0% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 20.6% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 46 D — COOL 5 0.153 93.2 9.9% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 12.7% 23

5 William Contreras 44 D — · 7 0.147 90.3 8.4% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 9.7% 32

6 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 8 0.142 88.9 9.0% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 11.2% 22

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D — WARM 9 0.132 89.2 5.8% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 9.0% 24

8 David Hamilton 33 D — WARM 12 0.091 86.8 5.3% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 8.2% 17

9 Sal Frelick 31 D — COOL 15 0.089 85.7 4.4% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 8.2% 22

vs MIL Bullpen Proxy 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 63 C+ — · 1 0.247 92.7 13.1% 27.6% 413 24.5% 0.0% 18.3% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 48 D — COOL 6 0.160 91.1 9.9% 14.7% 390 12.8% 0.0% 16.7% 21

3 Yandy Diaz 39 D — · 10 0.153 90.9 7.1% 16.8% 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 39

4 Cedric Mullins 37 D — WARM 11 0.138 88.1 4.3% 8.8% 386 11.5% 0.0% 8.8% 18

5 Jonny Deluca 36 D — · 13 0.162 85.8 3.6% 11.2% 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 32

6 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 14 0.139 86.2 3.9% 11.4% 385 8.4% 0.0% 8.2% 25

7 Nick Fortes 31 D — WARM 16 0.117 85.4 2.3% 8.0% 386 6.1% 0.0% 12.4% 17

8 Taylor Walls 25 D — WARM 17 0.075 85.6 2.1% 1.9% 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.5% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 18 0.049 83.7 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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