COL
@
8:05p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 8:05p
· roof open
Park 1.01×
Wind 15 mph slight_out
76°F
open
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
12:05a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.31
76°F, wind 15 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Hunter Goodman | 83 | 🟢 A | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 1 | 0.268 | 91.3 | 14.9% | 40.0% vs RHP | 403 | 25.8% | 41.7% | 43.4% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Brett Sullivan | 64 | 🔵 C+ | +850 | 🔥 HOT | 32 | 0.235 | 86.8 | 7.2% | 26.3% vs RHP | 396 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 32.7% | 14 |
| 3 |
|
Ezequiel Tovar | 49 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 98 | 0.137 | 88.1 | 10.6% | 17.5% vs RHP | 422 | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Tj Rumfield | 47 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 110 | 0.172 | 85.0 | 9.3% | 18.8% vs RHP | 409 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 39 |
| 5 |
|
Jake Mccarthy | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 116 | 0.161 | 84.9 | 8.7% | 13.8% vs RHP | 418 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.4% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Willi Castro | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 135 | 0.094 | 88.3 | 8.5% | 10.5% vs RHP | 422 | 5.8% | 18.2% | 14.1% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Edouard Julien | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 140 | 0.106 | 91.4 | 9.8% | 12.0% vs RHP | 389 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 19 |
| 8 |
|
Troy Johnston | 41 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 148 | 0.140 | 89.3 | 6.0% | 10.3% vs RHP | 415 | 1.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 42 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ian Happ | 73 | 🟡 B | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 8 | 0.263 | 90.1 | 12.8% | 29.5% vs RHP | 403 | 24.3% | 23.1% | 29.9% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 65 | 🔵 C+ | +360 | 🌤️ WARM | 29 | 0.195 | 91.6 | 11.4% | 18.9% vs RHP | 395 | 16.9% | 38.5% | 21.1% | 43 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 58 | 🟠 C | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 50 | 0.178 | 89.3 | 10.4% | 25.8% vs RHP | 409 | 12.0% | 27.3% | 22.1% | 26 |
| 4 |
|
Michael Busch | 54 | 🟠 C | +525 | · | 73 | 0.167 | 88.7 | 11.5% | 13.2% vs RHP | 400 | 11.1% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Moises Ballesteros | 46 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 114 | 0.162 | 90.1 | 10.1% | 20.7% vs RHP | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 19 |
| 6 |
|
Alex Bregman | 43 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 138 | 0.141 | 88.0 | 7.6% | 17.0% vs RHP | 395 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 43 |
| 7 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 42 | ⚪ D | +540 | ❄ COLD | 143 | 0.129 | 89.0 | 8.6% | 10.0% vs RHP | 398 | 10.1% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 23 |
| 8 |
|
Carson Kelly ⚡ | 38 | ⚪ D | · | · | 163 | 0.093 | 88.8 | 8.6% | 0.0% vs RHP | 418 | 4.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 23 |
| 9 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 203 | 0.096 | 85.8 | 3.5% | 4.8% vs RHP | 383 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 43 |