2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
COL
@ 8:05p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 8:05p · roof open
Park 1.01× Wind 15 mph slight_out 76°F open
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
12:05a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.31

76°F, wind 15 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera RHP 🎯 Susceptible
2.19 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.77 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 83 🟢 A +390 🌤️ WARM 1 0.268 91.3 14.9% 40.0% vs RHP 403 25.8% 41.7% 43.4% 30
2 Brett Sullivan Brett Sullivan 64 🔵 C+ +850 🔥 HOT 32 0.235 86.8 7.2% 26.3% vs RHP 396 12.5% 50.0% 32.7% 14
3 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 49 ⚪ D +850 · 98 0.137 88.1 10.6% 17.5% vs RHP 422 6.2% 8.3% 11.5% 24
4 Tj Rumfield Tj Rumfield 47 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 110 0.172 85.0 9.3% 18.8% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 39
5 Jake Mccarthy Jake Mccarthy 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 116 0.161 84.9 8.7% 13.8% vs RHP 418 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 24
6 Willi Castro Willi Castro 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 135 0.094 88.3 8.5% 10.5% vs RHP 422 5.8% 18.2% 14.1% 38
7 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 140 0.106 91.4 9.8% 12.0% vs RHP 389 3.4% 0.0% 9.1% 19
8 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 41 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 148 0.140 89.3 6.0% 10.3% vs RHP 415 1.9% 10.0% 9.4% 42
Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.35 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.24 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 73 🟡 B +575 🌧️ COOL 8 0.263 90.1 12.8% 29.5% vs RHP 403 24.3% 23.1% 29.9% 31
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 65 🔵 C+ +360 🌤️ WARM 29 0.195 91.6 11.4% 18.9% vs RHP 395 16.9% 38.5% 21.1% 43
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 58 🟠 C +525 🌤️ WARM 50 0.178 89.3 10.4% 25.8% vs RHP 409 12.0% 27.3% 22.1% 26
4 Michael Busch Michael Busch 54 🟠 C +525 · 73 0.167 88.7 11.5% 13.2% vs RHP 400 11.1% 15.4% 13.9% 29
5 Moises Ballesteros Moises Ballesteros 46 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 114 0.162 90.1 10.1% 20.7% vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 19
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 43 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 138 0.141 88.0 7.6% 17.0% vs RHP 395 7.1% 7.7% 9.3% 43
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 42 ⚪ D +540 ❄ COLD 143 0.129 89.0 8.6% 10.0% vs RHP 398 10.1% 0.0% 7.9% 23
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 38 ⚪ D · · 163 0.093 88.8 8.6% 0.0% vs RHP 418 4.8% 10.0% 6.5% 23
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 203 0.096 85.8 3.5% 4.8% vs RHP 383 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% 43
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