TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ TB

Playable air · 1.05×

CLE @ TB

Tropicana Field · 8:08p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Angel Martinez conv 13 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 9 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 76

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

2 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

FADE CLE Bullpen Proxy

leak 45

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●○○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 18.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy — 0.247 · 92.7 · 13.1% 0.0% 18.7% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· — Angel Martinez vs Peralta Edge — 0.211 · 87.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 26.0% F B O D 47

· — Travis Bazzana vs Peralta Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 19.3% F B O D 44

· — Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Proxy — 0.160 · 91.1 · 9.9% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 49

· — Chase Delauter vs Peralta Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 43

· — Patrick Bailey vs Peralta Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 42

· — Nick Fortes vs Proxy — 0.117 · 85.4 · 2.3% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 32

· — Jonny Deluca vs Proxy — 0.162 · 85.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 37

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· — Yandy Diaz vs Proxy — 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· — Cedric Mullins vs Proxy — 0.138 · 88.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 86.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· — Jose Ramirez vs Peralta Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 25

· — Taylor Walls vs Proxy — 0.075 · 85.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for CLE Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Freddy Peralta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Martinez

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 8:08p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs CLE Bullpen Proxy 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ — · 1 0.247 92.7 13.1% 27.6% 413 24.5% 0.0% 18.7% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D — COOL 3 0.160 91.1 9.9% 14.7% 390 12.8% 0.0% 17.1% 21

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D — · 8 0.153 90.9 7.1% 16.8% 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 39

4 Jonny Deluca 37 D — · 10 0.162 85.8 3.6% 11.2% 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 32

5 Cedric Mullins 37 D — WARM 11 0.138 88.1 4.3% 8.8% 386 11.5% 0.0% 9.0% 18

6 Richie Palacios 36 D — COOL 12 0.139 86.2 3.9% 11.4% 385 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 25

7 Nick Fortes 32 D — WARM 13 0.117 85.4 2.3% 8.0% 386 6.1% 0.0% 12.7% 17

8 Taylor Walls 26 D — WARM 15 0.075 85.6 2.1% 1.9% 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.7% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 16 0.049 83.7 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 42

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 47 D — · 2 0.211 87.5 6.6% 22.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 31

2 Travis Bazzana 44 D — WARM 4 0.163 87.6 5.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 19.3% 38

3 Chase Delauter 43 D — · 5 0.170 91.4 6.1% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 32

4 Patrick Bailey 42 D — WARM 6 0.129 90.5 6.7% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 15.4% 17

5 Brayan Rocchio 38 D — COOL 7 0.139 87.0 4.1% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 11.1% 33

6 Jose Ramirez 36 D — · 9 0.133 88.6 4.9% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 43

7 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 14 0.067 83.9 1.5% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 7.3% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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