2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
CHC
@ 7:10p
NYM
Citi Field · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 0.98× Wind 8 mph in 69°F open
-2
4 mph · cross
68°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
4 mph · cross
68°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
4 mph · cross
68°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
4 mph · cross
68°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
4 mph · cross
68°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.89

69°F, wind 8 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga LHP
1.68 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.58 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Juan Soto Juan Soto 73 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 10 0.271 93.3 12.4% 16.0% vs LHP 399 21.3% 25.0% 27.7% 37
2 Mark Vientos Mark Vientos 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 53 0.179 89.5 10.2% 15.8% vs LHP 410 12.3% 33.3% 19.8% 15
3 Carson Benge Carson Benge 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 100 0.133 90.1 9.9% 25.0% vs LHP 399 9.8% 16.7% 11.1% 36
4 Francisco Alvarez Francisco Alvarez 45 ⚪ D · · 118 0.136 90.4 12.8% 14.3% vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 25
5 Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 125 0.121 90.4 8.6% 25.0% vs LHP 381 8.1% 16.7% 13.9% 42
6 Marcus Semien Marcus Semien 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 131 0.134 86.1 9.4% 6.7% vs LHP 391 10.8% 8.3% 7.6% 29
7 Zack Short Zack Short 29 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 197 0.046 90.4 8.4% 0.0% vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 5
Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga RHP 💥 Meltdown
2.66 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +2.07 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 72 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 13 0.229 91.4 11.6% 19.6% vs RHP 393 19.7% 41.7% 28.8% 35
2 Ian Happ Ian Happ 70 🟡 B · ❄ COLD 16 0.243 90.0 12.7% 28.9% vs RHP 403 22.7% 16.7% 26.1% 31
3 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 56 🟠 C · · 59 0.192 86.9 7.8% 15.4% vs RHP 366 12.2% 33.3% 16.2% 18
4 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 54 🟠 C · · 67 0.176 89.4 10.1% 25.0% vs RHP 409 10.9% 9.1% 14.8% 25
5 Michael Busch Michael Busch 54 🟠 C · · 68 0.154 88.4 11.6% 13.2% vs RHP 400 10.4% 16.7% 13.3% 32
6 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 105 0.134 89.2 8.6% 9.8% vs RHP 396 10.8% 8.3% 9.3% 25
7 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 114 0.109 88.5 9.1% 5.6% vs RHP 421 6.1% 20.0% 14.2% 16
8 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 126 0.132 87.9 7.5% 17.0% vs RHP 395 6.7% 8.3% 10.1% 35
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 191 0.093 85.8 3.6% 4.8% vs RHP 383 5.3% 0.0% 8.3% 39
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.