AZ
@
6:45p
STL
Stadium Conditions
Busch Stadium
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.83×
Wind 5 mph out
82°F
open
+2
6 mph · out
81°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
6 mph · out
80°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
7 mph · out
79°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
7 mph · out
78°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · out
76°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.91
82°F, wind 5 mph E (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 63 | 🔵 C+ | +475 | · | 29 | 0.260 | 91.9 | 12.1% | 25.0% vs RHP | 406 | 17.5% | 23.1% | 22.7% | 41 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 51 | 🟠 C | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 78 | 0.206 | 90.1 | 10.3% | 18.8% vs RHP | 395 | 12.1% | 16.7% | 13.3% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 48 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌤️ WARM | 96 | 0.190 | 91.4 | 10.9% | 14.6% vs RHP | 413 | 11.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 48 |
| 4 |
|
Tommy Troy | 46 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 104 | 0.139 | 85.0 | 11.8% | 20.0% vs RHP | 397 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 11.7% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 158 | 0.158 | 85.3 | 8.1% | 15.8% vs RHP | 400 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 28 | ⚪ D | +900 | 🌧️ COOL | 200 | 0.108 | 87.2 | 5.6% | 8.1% vs RHP | 379 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 33 |
| 7 |
|
Pavin Smith | 23 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 213 | 0.056 | 86.4 | 8.1% | 9.1% vs RHP | 384 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 21 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker ⚡ | 57 | 🟠 C | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 51 | 0.244 | 93.9 | 10.3% | 42.9% vs LHP | 408 | 18.8% | 15.4% | 16.6% | 44 |
| 2 |
|
Nelson Velazquez | 50 | 🟠 C | +500 | 🔥 HOT | 79 | 0.235 | 93.9 | 10.4% | 40.0% vs LHP | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.4% | 8 |
| 3 |
|
Lars Nootbaar ⚡ | 39 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 147 | 0.180 | 94.0 | 9.1% | 18.2% | 439 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 36 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 160 | 0.171 | 89.8 | 7.5% | 35.7% vs LHP | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.0% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 34 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 171 | 0.156 | 90.1 | 7.7% | 7.7% vs LHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 47 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages | 29 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 192 | 0.136 | 87.0 | 6.9% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 208 | 0.094 | 87.7 | 5.2% | 0.0% vs LHP | 389 | 4.2% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 44 |
| 8 |
|
José Fermín | 19 | ⚪ D | +800 | 🌧️ COOL | 219 | 0.097 | 85.6 | 3.0% | 10.0% vs LHP | 372 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 19 |