AZ
@
4:10p
CIN
Stadium Conditions
Great American Ball Park
First pitch 4:10p
· roof open
Park 1.17×
Wind 3 mph cross
84°F
open
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
4:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
5:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
6:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.28
84°F, wind 3 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 72 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 12 | 0.261 | 91.9 | 9.7% | 26.5% vs RHP | 406 | 16.7% | 30.8% | 29.8% | 39 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 58 | 🟠 C | · | · | 44 | 0.204 | 89.6 | 8.8% | 17.9% vs RHP | 403 | 12.0% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 57 | 🟠 C | · | · | 55 | 0.192 | 90.8 | 8.9% | 15.6% vs RHP | 416 | 12.0% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 41 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 50 | 🟠 C | · | · | 78 | 0.181 | 85.3 | 6.9% | 18.2% vs RHP | 400 | 11.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 123 | 0.131 | 88.6 | 6.6% | 18.2% vs RHP | 396 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 4 |
| 6 |
|
Ryan Waldschmidt | 37 | ⚪ D | · | · | 158 | 0.101 | 86.8 | 7.9% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Tommy Troy | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 164 | 0.098 | 85.3 | 7.4% | 14.3% vs RHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.104 | 87.4 | 4.6% | 6.7% vs RHP | 372 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 40 |
| 9 |
|
Pavin Smith | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 208 | 0.000 | 85.9 | 6.5% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 13 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jj Bleday | 65 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 27 | 0.296 | 90.1 | 10.1% | 37.5% vs RHP | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Nathaniel Lowe | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 33 | 0.237 | 89.3 | 10.4% | 33.3% vs RHP | 398 | 19.4% | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19 |
| 3 |
|
Sal Stewart | 58 | 🟠 C | · | · | 45 | 0.203 | 90.6 | 10.9% | 20.0% vs RHP | 394 | 9.4% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Spencer Steer | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 46 | 0.191 | 89.4 | 10.3% | 12.8% vs RHP | 393 | 10.8% | 16.7% | 20.9% | 30 |
| 5 |
|
Tyler Stephenson | 49 | ⚪ D | · | · | 85 | 0.143 | 90.7 | 9.5% | 15.2% vs RHP | 381 | 7.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Matt Mclain | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 90 | 0.166 | 88.3 | 9.0% | 11.4% vs RHP | 398 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Eugenio Suarez | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 135 | 0.134 | 86.5 | 7.6% | 20.0% vs RHP | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 28 |
| 8 |
|
Noelvi Marte | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 160 | 0.072 | 87.8 | 4.9% | 12.5% | 427 | 5.3% | 25.0% | 10.7% | 16 |