2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
AZ
@ 4:10p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open
Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph cross 84°F open
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
4:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
5:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
6:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · in
78°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.28

84°F, wind 3 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder RHP
0.40 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.89 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 72 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 12 0.261 91.9 9.7% 26.5% vs RHP 406 16.7% 30.8% 29.8% 39
2 Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno 58 🟠 C · · 44 0.204 89.6 8.8% 17.9% vs RHP 403 12.0% 16.7% 15.4% 30
3 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 57 🟠 C · · 55 0.192 90.8 8.9% 15.6% vs RHP 416 12.0% 16.7% 12.2% 41
4 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 50 🟠 C · · 78 0.181 85.3 6.9% 18.2% vs RHP 400 11.5% 7.7% 10.2% 29
5 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 123 0.131 88.6 6.6% 18.2% vs RHP 396 9.7% 0.0% 10.8% 4
6 Ryan Waldschmidt Ryan Waldschmidt 37 ⚪ D · · 158 0.101 86.8 7.9% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 24
7 Tommy Troy Tommy Troy 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 164 0.098 85.3 7.4% 14.3% vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 26
8 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 173 0.104 87.4 4.6% 6.7% vs RHP 372 3.8% 0.0% 7.3% 40
9 Pavin Smith Pavin Smith 25 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 208 0.000 85.9 6.5% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 13
Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka RHP
0.94 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.33 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jj Bleday Jj Bleday 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 27 0.296 90.1 10.1% 37.5% vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 40
2 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 63 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 33 0.237 89.3 10.4% 33.3% vs RHP 398 19.4% 0.0% 20.5% 19
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 58 🟠 C · · 45 0.203 90.6 10.9% 20.0% vs RHP 394 9.4% 8.3% 14.5% 32
4 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 58 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 46 0.191 89.4 10.3% 12.8% vs RHP 393 10.8% 16.7% 20.9% 30
5 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 49 ⚪ D · · 85 0.143 90.7 9.5% 15.2% vs RHP 381 7.1% 11.1% 9.6% 22
6 Matt Mclain Matt Mclain 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 90 0.166 88.3 9.0% 11.4% vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 22
7 Eugenio Suarez Eugenio Suarez 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 135 0.134 86.5 7.6% 20.0% vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 28
8 Noelvi Marte Noelvi Marte 36 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 160 0.072 87.8 4.9% 12.5% 427 5.3% 25.0% 10.7% 16
🏟️
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