TheHomeRuns.org — AL @ NL

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.11×

AL @ NL

Citizens Bank Park · 8:00p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 3 mph out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

8:00p

+15 ↑

9:00p

+15 ↑

10:00p

+14 ↑

11:00p

+14 ↑

12:00a

best window is early — 8:00p at +15

Best of game Juan Soto conv 34 · vs Cease ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 44 · vs Sánchez → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 73

0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●●

2 Kyle Schwarber +360 C+ ●●●●○

3 Freddie Freeman +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +550 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — B ●●●●●

3 Yordan Alvarez +550 B ●●●●●

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero vs Sánchez Edge +550 0.269 · 93.2 · 11.1% 46.2% 42.5% F B O C+ 69

· — Ben Rice ✶ HOT vs Sánchez — 0.321 · 92.1 · 11.7% 50.0% 33.4% F B O B 74

· — Yordan Alvarez vs Sánchez +550 0.310 · 94.7 · 12.9% 45.5% 28.8% F B O B 74

· — Juan Soto COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.266 · 92.6 · 7.8% 33.3% 34.7% F B O C+ 62

· — Shea Langeliers HOT vs Sánchez Edge — 0.231 · 91.8 · 11.5% 20.0% 35.1% F B O C+ 63

· — Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Cease Edge +360 0.308 · 93.4 · 8.9% 16.7% 38.3% F B O C+ 66

· — Mike Trout COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.230 · 90.7 · 13.4% 20.0% 27.6% F B O C+ 62

· — Riley Greene vs Sánchez +1000 0.176 · 91.4 · 11.1% 27.3% 16.9% F B O C 54

· — Max Muncy COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.228 · 90.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 17.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Freddie Freeman COOL vs Cease Edge +850 0.194 · 90.5 · 6.6% 16.7% 14.3% F B O D 49

· — Cj Abrams vs Cease Edge +750 0.228 · 89.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 30.8% F B O D 48

· — Ozzie Albies vs Cease Edge — 0.169 · 87.2 · 4.0% 15.4% 11.7% F B O D 42

· — Brandon Marsh vs Cease Edge — 0.185 · 89.8 · 6.2% 9.1% 14.3% F B O D 46

· — Drake Baldwin COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.183 · 91.4 · 7.9% 7.7% 13.9% F B O D 49

· — Andy Pages COOL vs Cease — 0.196 · 89.1 · 5.9% 8.3% 12.5% F B O D 47

· — Ernie Clement vs Sánchez Edge — 0.134 · 85.2 · 4.7% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 37

· — Cody Bellinger COOL vs Sánchez — 0.162 · 88.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.6% ← leak OFF 38.8% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Ben Rice L

18.8% 12.8% 9.3% 15.1% B 74 —

Yordan Alvarez L

18.8% 10.9% 23.8% 18.6% B 74 +550

Neutral · 4

Junior Caminero R Edge

16.7% 5.6% 13.1% 14.0% C+ 69 +550

Shea Langeliers R Edge

17.2% 4.9% 16.1% 14.9% C+ 63 —

Mike Trout R Edge

18.6% 10.5% 29.4% 19.7% C+ 62 —

Riley Greene L

16.2% 6.2% 14.3% 13.8% C 54 +1000

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L

3.4% 9.1% 12.5% 6.4% D 44 —

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.4% ← leak BRK 43.1% OFF 11.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.7% 16.9% 28.0% 19.8% C+ 66 +360

Juan Soto L Edge

18.2% 11.9% 5.4% 14.4% C+ 62 —

Max Muncy S Edge

18.3% 13.7% 7.3% 14.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 10.3% D 49 +850

Drake Baldwin L Edge

16.3% 20.8% 0.0% 15.1% D 49 —

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.3% 7.4% 9.8% 9.7% D 48 +750

Andy Pages R

8.3% 9.0% 6.9% 8.4% D 47 —

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.6% 14.9% 2.8% 9.6% D 46 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.1% 1.1% 3.3% 4.0% D 42 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.4% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Alvarez Caminero Langeliers Trout Greene Schwarber Soto Freeman Abrams Albies

Legend

attack side — vs Cease fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 6

Junior Caminero +550 · 69

Ben Rice — · 74

Yordan Alvarez +550 · 74

Juan Soto — · 62

Shea Langeliers — · 63

Mike Trout — · 62

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 8:00p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 3 mph out 68°F open

+15

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

8:00p · peak

+15

↑

10 mph · out

86°F

9:00p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

84°F

10:00p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

11:00p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

81°F

12:00a

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 68°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 74 B — HOT 1 0.321 92.1 11.7% 47.1%vs LHP 389 27.6% 50.0% 33.4% 32

2 Yordan Alvarez 74 B +550 WARM 2 0.310 94.7 12.9% 29.6%vs LHP 404 28.8% 45.5% 28.8% 37

3 Junior Caminero 69 C+ +550 WARM 3 0.269 93.2 11.1% 50.0%vs LHP 408 27.5% 46.2% 42.5% 34

4 Shea Langeliers 63 C+ — HOT 5 0.231 91.8 11.5% 33.3%vs LHP 416 19.8% 20.0% 35.1% 17

5 Mike Trout 62 C+ — COOL 6 0.230 90.7 13.4% 25.0%vs LHP 409 18.7% 20.0% 27.6% 14

6 Riley Greene 54 C +1000 WARM 8 0.176 91.4 11.1% 12.5%vs LHP 399 11.7% 27.3% 16.9% 27

7 Cody Bellinger 44 D — COOL 15 0.162 88.9 7.6% 15.4%vs LHP 379 10.2% 0.0% 9.6% 34

8 Ernie Clement 37 D — · 17 0.134 85.2 4.7% 11.5%vs LHP 375 9.0% 9.1% 9.4% 43

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 66 C+ +360 COOL 4 0.308 93.4 8.9% 45.6%vs RHP 404 25.8% 16.7% 38.3% 24

2 Juan Soto 62 C+ — COOL 7 0.266 92.6 7.8% 33.3%vs RHP 401 21.0% 33.3% 34.7% 33

3 Max Muncy 52 C — COOL 9 0.228 90.1 7.5% 23.9%vs RHP 409 17.8% 0.0% 17.4% 27

4 Freddie Freeman 49 D +850 COOL 10 0.194 90.5 6.6% 17.7%vs RHP 398 14.1% 16.7% 14.3% 39

5 Drake Baldwin 49 D — COOL 11 0.183 91.4 7.9% 23.5%vs RHP 406 17.6% 7.7% 13.9% 41

6 Cj Abrams 48 D +750 · 12 0.228 89.9 6.3% 28.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 30.8% 33

7 Andy Pages 47 D — COOL 13 0.196 89.1 5.9% 22.2%vs RHP 391 15.1% 8.3% 12.5% 32

8 Brandon Marsh 46 D — · 14 0.185 89.8 6.2% 25.0%vs RHP 392 13.6% 9.1% 14.3% 30

9 Ozzie Albies 42 D — WARM 16 0.169 87.2 4.0% 12.9%vs RHP 383 12.6% 15.4% 11.7% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.