Dinger Tuesday Picks — July 28, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-28: what the model ranked, what actually happened. Not gambling advice.
The record, in public
Home runs, graded · July 28, 2026
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Model score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Max Muncy | Luis Castillo | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Shohei Ohtani | Luis Castillo | 66 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Sal Stewart | Gavin Williams | 65 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Sal Stewart | Slade Cecconi | 64 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Yordan Álvarez | Reid Detmers | 64 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Dominic Canzone | Justin Wrobleski | 62 | C+ Value |
| #23 | Jj Bleday | Gavin Williams | 61 | C+ Value |
| #24 | JJ Bleday | Slade Cecconi | 61 | C+ Value |
| #58 | Kyle Stowers | Aaron Nola | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Dylan Crews | Shane Bieber | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Kyle Manzardo | Chase Burns | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Kyle Manzardo | Caleb Ferguson | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Mickey Moniak | Michael King | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Julio Rodríguez | Justin Wrobleski | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Brandon Lowe | Brandon Pfaadt | 49 | D Below |
| #90 | Christian Walker | Reid Detmers | 47 | D Below |
| #93 | Cal Raleigh | Justin Wrobleski | 47 | D Below |
| #112 | Bryce Eldridge | Logan Henderson | 44 | D Below |
| #120 | Bryan Reynolds | Brandon Pfaadt | 44 | D Below |
| #153 | George Springer | Cade Cavalli | 40 | D Below |
| #213 | Chase Meidroth | Gerrit Cole | 34 | D Below |
| #221 | Austin Wynns | Griffin Jax | 33 | D Below |
| #228 | Gleyber Torres | Dean Kremer | 32 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kyle Stowers, Dylan Crews, Kyle Manzardo, Kyle Manzardo, Mickey Moniak, Julio Rodríguez, Brandon Lowe, Christian Walker, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Eldridge, Bryan Reynolds, George Springer, Chase Meidroth, Austin Wynns, Gleyber Torres
How we approach a home run promo
A recurring home run promotion turns one day a week into a single-question day: which bat do you put the credit on? TheHomeRuns.org answers it the same way every other day — every MLB batter is scored on 30+ signals (barrel-rate matchup, the opposing starter's home-run rate, park factor, weather, recent form) and the board is ranked by home run probability. The model score you see on each pick is that composite, 0–100.
Two things we do not do. We do not publish promo terms — amounts, boosts, eligibility and availability are the sportsbook's, they change without notice, and we have no way to verify them, so check the book's own promotions page. And we do not hide bad days: every board is graded the next morning against real results, misses included, on the track record and in the dated archive. The whole reason this page is worth reading on a promo morning is that you can check what it said the last time.
Questions
Dinger Tuesday is the name used for a recurring sportsbook promotion on home run props — books such as FanDuel have run recurring home run promos. The terms, eligibility and availability are set by the sportsbook and change without notice, so TheHomeRuns.org does not publish them: check the book's own promotions page for what is live today. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. What we publish is the model's ranked home run board for the day, and the graded result of every past board.
This page is the graded record for July 28, 2026, not a live board. Today's ranked picks are at https://thehomeruns.org/dinger-tuesday-picks. Every board on this site is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses. Not gambling advice.
Across 129 graded slates this season, 15.2% of our top-50 picks homered against a 10.6% league field rate — about 1.4x the field. Every board is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses, and the dated archive on this site stays up.
Graded promo-day archive
Not gambling advice. TheHomeRuns.org publishes model output and its graded record; nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by FanDuel or any sportsbook, and we do not state any promotion's terms, credit amounts, odds or eligibility — check the sportsbook's own promotions page. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.