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Study Day
📅 2026-08-17
1
Top-5 Hits
5
Top-15 Hits
21
HRs in Slate
96%
Coverage
183
Scored
What Happened
The top 15 captured 5 home runs — exceptional concentration at the top of the board.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
8 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
11 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
9 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Shota Imanaga: {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 1, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Miguel Vargas', 'rank': 5, 'score': 69.0}
Janson Junk: {'batter': 'Kyle Schwarber', 'rank': 2, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Bryce Harper', 'rank': 10, 'score': 64.0}
Tomoyuki Sugano: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 3, 'score': 72.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 6, 'score': 69.0}
Luis Castillo: {'batter': 'Pete Crow-Armstrong', 'rank': 8, 'score': 66.0}, {'batter': 'Seiya Suzuki', 'rank': 14, 'score': 60.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Shota Imanaga | 37.0% | 76 | 4.6 | 1.07 | · | 14.1% | |
| 2 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Janson Junk | 40.2% | 73 | 4.3 | 1.13 | · | 11.4% | |
| 3 | ✅ | Shohei Ohtani | Tomoyuki Sugano | 30.7% | 72 | 5.5 | 1.03 | 🌧️ | 14.7% | 106.8 mph · 452ft · 31.0° |
| 4 | — | Matt Olson | Bailey Ober | 31.9% | 70 | 4.8 | 0.95 | 🌤️ | 12.6% | |
| 5 | — | Miguel Vargas | Shota Imanaga | 34.2% | 69 | 4.6 | 1.07 | · | 11.7% | |
| 6 | ✅ | Max Muncy | Tomoyuki Sugano | 29.3% | 69 | 5.5 | 1.03 | · | 13.4% | 110.2 mph · 461ft · 31.0° |
| 7 | — | Junior Caminero | Brandon Young | 34.2% | 66 | 4.0 | 1.04 | · | 9.2% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Luis Castillo | 31.2% | 66 | 4.4 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | 98.7 mph · 391ft · 30.0° |
| 9 | — | Jac Caglianone | Mason Barnett | 30.5% | 64 | 6.8 | 1.00 | 🌤️ | 11.7% | |
| 10 | — | Bryce Harper | Janson Junk | 28.4% | 64 | 4.3 | 1.13 | 🌧️ | 9.0% | |
| 11 | — | Griffin Conine | Cristopher Sánchez | 26.3% | 62 | 2.7 | 1.13 | 🌤️ | 11.5% | |
| 12 | — | Alec Burleson | Rhett Lowder | 25.2% | 61 | 4.6 | 1.08 | 🔥 | 10.1% | |
| 13 | — | Jordan Walker | CIN Bullpen Proxy | 18.6% | 64 | 4.7 | 1.08 | 🌧️ | 13.1% | |
| 14 | ✅ | Seiya Suzuki | Luis Castillo | 24.2% | 60 | 4.4 | 1.07 | · | 9.9% | 110.6 mph · 440ft · 24.0° |
| 15 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Shane McClanahan | 22.7% | 60 | 3.4 | 1.04 | 🌤️ | 10.8% | 101.3 mph · 357ft · 29.0° |
All 21 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | 30.7% | 106.8 | 452ft | 31.0° |
| 6 | Max Muncy | 29.3% | 110.2 | 461ft | 31.0° |
| 8 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 31.2% | 98.7 | 391ft | 30.0° |
| 14 | Seiya Suzuki | 24.2% | 110.6 | 440ft | 24.0° |
| 15 | Pete Alonso | 22.7% | 101.3 | 357ft | 29.0° |
| 26 | Randal Grichuk | 19.1% | 102.9 | 404ft | 24.0° |
| 34 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 28.4% | 105.7 | 359ft | 47.0° |
| 37 | Willson Contreras | 14.6% | 89.9 | 342ft | 37.0° |
| 42 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 12.4% | 106.6 | 390ft | 22.0° |
| 45 | Coby Mayo | 16.1% | 114.2 | 468ft | 28.0° |
| 53 | Ryan Vilade | 23.2% | 107.4 | 428ft | 26.0° |
| 78 | Yandy Díaz | 11.0% | 104.5 | 396ft | 26.0° |
| 85 | Iván Herrera | 8.3% | 100.9 | 395ft | 28.0° |
| 96 | Jorge Mateo | 11.1% | 101.7 | 406ft | 31.0° |
| 100 | Brian Serven | 20.5% | 98.3 | 386ft | 34.0° |
| 116 | Iván Herrera | 9.2% | 100.9 | 395ft | 28.0° |
| 140 | Kevin McGonigle | 6.8% | 104.6 | 405ft | 26.0° |
| 147 | Dane Myers | 6.1% | 102.2 | 391ft | 35.0° |
| 161 | Tommy White | 7.8% | 103.3 | 401ft | 24.0° |
| 171 | Jeff McNeil | 6.9% | 102.1 | 375ft | 29.0° |
| 172 | Mickey Gasper | 6.4% | 105.6 | 343ft | 23.0° |