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Study Day
📅 2026-07-04
0
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
35
HRs in Slate
81%
Coverage
239
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 35 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
7 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
10 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
10 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
NYY Bullpen Proxy: {'batter': 'Byron Buxton', 'rank': 3, 'score': 80.0}, {'batter': 'Kody Clemens', 'rank': 14, 'score': 68.0}
Michael Wacha: {'batter': 'Kyle Schwarber', 'rank': 4, 'score': 72.0}, {'batter': 'Bryce Harper', 'rank': 10, 'score': 65.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Ben Rice | Zebby Matthews | 38.5% | 77 | 4.8 | 1.20 | ❄ | 13.3% | |
| 2 | — | Hunter Goodman | Robbie Ray | 37.0% | 77 | 4.7 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 12.8% | |
| 3 | — | Byron Buxton | NYY Bullpen Proxy | 25.0% | 80 | 3.7 | 1.20 | · | 18.5% | |
| 4 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Michael Wacha | 36.6% | 72 | 3.8 | 1.09 | · | 11.1% | |
| 5 | — | Esmerlyn Valdez | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 34.0% | 71 | 4.7 | 0.99 | · | 29.3% | |
| 6 | — | Nick Kurtz | Sandy Alcantara | 39.2% | 66 | 3.9 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | 10.3% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Dominic Canzone | Shane Bieber | 32.0% | 66 | 8.9 | 0.82 | 🌤️ | 16.8% | 104.4 mph · 401ft · 27.0° |
| 8 | — | Owen Caissie | Aaron Civale | 31.7% | 66 | 5.5 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | 12.4% | |
| 9 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Kyle Leahy | 31.3% | 66 | 4.2 | 1.09 | 🌧️ | 11.4% | |
| 10 | — | Bryce Harper | Michael Wacha | 35.5% | 65 | 3.8 | 1.09 | · | 8.8% | |
| 11 | ✅ | Yordan Alvarez | Drew Rasmussen | 32.2% | 65 | 3.0 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 10.8% | 108.3 mph · 424ft · 23.0° |
| 12 | — | Jake Bauers | Merrill Kelly | 29.1% | 65 | 6.5 | 0.92 | · | 13.5% | |
| 13 | — | Rafael Devers | Sean Sullivan | 27.8% | 65 | 6.9 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 8.9% | |
| 14 | ✅ | Kody Clemens | NYY Bullpen Proxy | 28.4% | 68 | 3.7 | 1.20 | · | 13.0% | 101.2 mph · 393ft · 28.0° |
| 15 | — | Dillon Dingler | Cal Quantrill | 27.9% | 64 | 4.3 | 0.98 | · | 11.1% |
All 35 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dominic Canzone | 32.0% | 104.4 | 401ft | 27.0° |
| 11 | Yordan Alvarez | 32.2% | 108.3 | 424ft | 23.0° |
| 14 | Kody Clemens | 28.4% | 101.2 | 393ft | 28.0° |
| 20 | Junior Caminero | 31.2% | 107.5 | 437ft | 26.0° |
| 21 | Kyle Stowers | 29.5% | 100.5 | 377ft | 43.0° |
| 24 | Jackson Chourio | 16.6% | 105.7 | 410ft | 32.0° |
| 33 | Max Schuemann | 25.5% | 102.1 | 418ft | 28.0° |
| 45 | Willson Contreras | 17.5% | 108.9 | 421ft | 28.0° |
| 46 | Samuel Basallo | 24.6% | 105.7 | 406ft | 27.0° |
| 47 | James Wood | 21.8% | 113.1 | 428ft | 31.0° |
| 52 | Bryce Eldridge | 15.2% | 106.8 | 458ft | 30.0° |
| 61 | Freddie Freeman | 16.5% | 100.6 | 388ft | 36.0° |
| 64 | Jasson Domínguez | 18.6% | 103.8 | 357ft | 22.0° |
| 74 | Otto Lopez | 10.6% | 102.5 | 375ft | 22.0° |
| 88 | Riley Greene | 14.4% | 107.7 | 386ft | 28.0° |
| 90 | Josh Bell | 12.6% | 96.4 | 376ft | 30.0° |
| 93 | Colson Montgomery | 15.2% | 104.1 | 402ft | 29.0° |
| 105 | Randy Arozarena | 11.5% | 105.2 | 412ft | 24.0° |
| 107 | Cal Raleigh | 9.1% | 109.7 | 384ft | 41.0° |
| 108 | JJ Wetherholt | 9.0% | 101.1 | 364ft | 24.0° |
| 119 | Mark Vientos | 18.6% | 104.1 | 396ft | 30.0° |
| 141 | Alec Bohm | 9.0% | 105.8 | 444ft | 27.0° |
| 143 | Christian Yelich | 7.9% | 108.6 | 418ft | 26.0° |
| 153 | Trevor Larnach | 9.3% | 105.8 | 360ft | 18.0° |
| 159 | Josh Lowe | 9.1% | 109.6 | 437ft | 32.0° |
| 169 | Eli White | 9.2% | 93.5 | 358ft | 29.0° |
| 171 | Austin Riley | 8.2% | 98.2 | 362ft | 26.0° |
| 176 | Jonny DeLuca | 9.9% | 102.9 | 355ft | 20.0° |
| 185 | Mauricio Dubón | 7.7% | 95.0 | 365ft | 27.0° |
| 201 | Yainer Diaz | 7.7% | 103.5 | 394ft | 28.0° |
| 207 | Austin Hedges | 8.9% | 101.2 | 388ft | 24.0° |
| 216 | Adrian Del Castillo | 6.7% | 107.8 | 414ft | 33.0° |
| 220 | Luke Keaschall | 7.5% | 98.4 | 368ft | 31.0° |
| 229 | Richie Palacios | 6.1% | 101.7 | 409ft | 31.0° |
| 232 | Alex Jackson | 8.6% | 105.7 | 410ft | 35.0° |