MLB Home Run Predictions — May 30, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-30: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 30, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | Matt Olson | Brady Singer | 81 | A Excellent |
| #6 | Christian Walker | Brandon Sproat | 80 | A Excellent |
| #12 | Luke Raley | Ryne Nelson | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #15 | JJ Bleday | Martín Pérez | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #23 | Mike Trout | Drew Rasmussen | 67 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Shea Langeliers | Ryan Weathers | 66 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Dominic Canzone | Ryne Nelson | 65 | C+ Value |
| #33 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Brady Singer | 64 | C+ Value |
| #36 | Julio Rodríguez | Ryne Nelson | 63 | C+ Value |
| #46 | Manny Machado | Foster Griffin | 62 | C+ Value |
| #47 | Yandy Díaz | Reid Detmers | 62 | C+ Value |
| #56 | Nick Kurtz | Ryan Weathers | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Joc Pederson | Seth Lugo | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Kyle Leahy | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Alec Bohm | Roki Sasaki | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Oneil Cruz | Bailey Ober | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Jorge Mateo | Brady Singer | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #84 | Colson Montgomery | Framber Valdez | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #95 | Spencer Horwitz | Bailey Ober | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #96 | Tyler Soderstrom | Ryan Weathers | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #104 | Jo Adell | Drew Rasmussen | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #121 | Oswald Peraza | Drew Rasmussen | 47 | D Below |
| #127 | Jarren Duran | Parker Messick | 47 | D Below |
| #132 | Jake Mccarthy | Adrian Houser | 46 | D Below |
| #136 | Josh Jung | Seth Lugo | 45 | D Below |
| #141 | Wenceel Pérez | Anthony Kay | 44 | D Below |
| #148 | Jeremy Peña | Brandon Sproat | 44 | D Below |
| #150 | Wade Meckler | Drew Rasmussen | 43 | D Below |
| #151 | Kyle Karros | Adrian Houser | 43 | D Below |
| #178 | Xander Bogaerts | Foster Griffin | 39 | D Below |
| #184 | Carter Jensen | Kumar Rocker | 38 | D Below |
| #190 | Drew Gilbert | Ryan Feltner | 37 | D Below |
| #209 | Andrew Benintendi | Framber Valdez | 34 | D Below |
| #217 | Jared Young | Tyler Phillips | 33 | D Below |
| #229 | Edgar Quero | Framber Valdez | 29 | D Below |
| #234 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Foster Griffin | 26 | D Below |
| #254 | Drew Millas | Michael King | 19 | D Below |
| #266 | Jake Mangum | Bailey Ober | 13 | D Below |
| #267 | Hayden Senger | Tyler Phillips | 12 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Nick Kurtz, Joc Pederson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alec Bohm, Oneil Cruz, Jorge Mateo, Colson Montgomery, Spencer Horwitz, Tyler Soderstrom, Jo Adell, Oswald Peraza, Jarren Duran, Jake Mccarthy, Josh Jung, Wenceel Pérez, Jeremy Peña, Wade Meckler, Kyle Karros, Xander Bogaerts, Carter Jensen, Drew Gilbert, Andrew Benintendi, Jared Young, Edgar Quero, Fernando Tatis Jr., Drew Millas, Jake Mangum, Hayden Senger