MLB Home Run Predictions — May 29, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-29: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 29, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Kyle Schwarber | Justin Wrobleski | 84 | A Excellent |
| #4 | Nathaniel Lowe | Grant Holmes | 80 | A Excellent |
| #5 | Ben Rice | Luis Severino | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #8 | Dillon Dingler | Erick Fedde | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #15 | JJ Bleday | Grant Holmes | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #16 | Curtis Mead | Lucas Giolito | 69 | C+ Value |
| #25 | Miguel Vargas | Troy Melton | 66 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Ty France | Paxton Schultz | 65 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Keibert Ruiz | Lucas Giolito | 65 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Max Muncy | Zack Wheeler | 64 | C+ Value |
| #31 | Luke Raley | Zac Gallen | 63 | C+ Value |
| #39 | Ian Happ | Andre Pallante | 61 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Shohei Ohtani | Zack Wheeler | 61 | C+ Value |
| #45 | Yandy Díaz | Walbert Ureña | 60 | C+ Value |
| #49 | Freddie Freeman | Zack Wheeler | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Kazuma Okamoto | Trevor Rogers | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Hunter Goodman | Logan Webb | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Jonathan Aranda | Walbert Ureña | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Paul Goldschmidt | Luis Severino | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #66 | Julio Rodríguez | Zac Gallen | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | J. P. Crawford | Zac Gallen | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Oneil Cruz | Taj Bradley | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Nick Kurtz | Carlos Rodón | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Ryan Mcmahon | Luis Severino | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #82 | Iván Herrera | Shota Imanaga | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Chris Paddack | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #97 | Joc Pederson | Stephen Kolek | 48 | D Below |
| #108 | Jackson Chourio | Kai-Wei Teng | 47 | D Below |
| #116 | Will Smith | Zack Wheeler | 46 | D Below |
| #130 | Owen Caissie | Freddy Peralta | 44 | D Below |
| #133 | Brandon Nimmo | Stephen Kolek | 44 | D Below |
| #149 | Mark Vientos | Max Meyer | 40 | D Below |
| #155 | Cam Smith | Coleman Crow | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Jackson Merrill | Paxton Schultz | 36 | D Below |
| #181 | Bryan Reynolds | Taj Bradley | 34 | D Below |
| #201 | Ezequiel Tovar | Logan Webb | 31 | D Below |
| #209 | Thomas Saggese | Shota Imanaga | 29 | D Below |
| #219 | Nelson Velázquez | Shota Imanaga | 26 | D Below |
| #231 | Nicky Lopez | Stephen Kolek | 23 | D Below |
| #232 | Geraldo Perdomo | George Kirby | 22 | D Below |
| #242 | David Hamilton | Kai-Wei Teng | 17 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Hunter Goodman, Jonathan Aranda, Paul Goldschmidt, Julio Rodríguez, J. P. Crawford, Oneil Cruz, Nick Kurtz, Ryan Mcmahon, Iván Herrera, Ronald Acuña Jr., Joc Pederson, Jackson Chourio, Will Smith, Owen Caissie, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, Cam Smith, Jackson Merrill, Bryan Reynolds, Ezequiel Tovar, Thomas Saggese, Nelson Velázquez, Nicky Lopez, Geraldo Perdomo, David Hamilton