MLB Home Run Predictions — May 22, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
17
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
41.4 vs 40.1
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #12 | Byron Buxton | Payton Tolle | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #15 | Juan Soto | Eury Pérez | 69 | C+ Value |
| #23 | Pete Alonso | Jack Flaherty | 62 | C+ Value |
| #56 | Zach Neto | Jacob deGrom | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Kyle Manzardo | Cristopher Sánchez | 47 | D Below |
| #76 | Ramón Laureano | Jeffrey Springs | 47 | D Below |
| #107 | Kevin McGonigle | Chris Bassitt | 42 | D Below |
| #118 | Brandon Nimmo | Grayson Rodriguez | 41 | D Below |
| #119 | Oswald Peraza | Jacob deGrom | 41 | D Below |
| #156 | Nick Castellanos | Jeffrey Springs | 36 | D Below |
| #159 | Christian Vázquez | Jameson Taillon | 35 | D Below |
| #181 | Manny Machado | Jeffrey Springs | 33 | D Below |
| #192 | Austin Wells | Nick Martinez | 31 | D Below |
| #200 | William Contreras | Justin Wrobleski | 30 | D Below |
| #202 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Spencer Arrighetti | 29 | D Below |
| #222 | Danny Jansen | Grayson Rodriguez | 25 | D Below |
| #256 | Austin Martin | Payton Tolle | 13 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zach Neto, Kyle Manzardo, Ramón Laureano, Kevin McGonigle, Brandon Nimmo, Oswald Peraza, Nick Castellanos, Christian Vázquez, Manny Machado, Austin Wells, William Contreras, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Danny Jansen, Austin Martin
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.