MLB Home Run Predictions — May 21, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
10
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
37.8 vs 37.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Dustin May | 62 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Michael Harris II | Sandy Alcantara | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #23 | Dillon Dingler | Joey Cantillo | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #24 | Owen Caissie | Spencer Strider | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Kyle Stowers | Spencer Strider | 36 | D Below |
| #65 | Mike Yastrzemski | Sandy Alcantara | 34 | D Below |
| #85 | Henry Davis | Dustin May | 29 | D Below |
| #91 | Nolan Schanuel | Luis Severino | 27 | D Below |
| #100 | Iván Herrera | Braxton Ashcraft | 23 | D Below |
| #112 | Patrick Bailey | Casey Mize | 10 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kyle Stowers, Mike Yastrzemski, Henry Davis, Nolan Schanuel, Iván Herrera, Patrick Bailey
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.