MLB Home Run Predictions — May 20, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-20: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 20, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.1 vs 44.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #12 | Sal Stewart | Aaron Nola | 78 | B AboveAvg |
| #22 | Juan Soto | Zack Littell | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #45 | Pete Alonso | Steven Matz | 60 | C+ Value |
| #46 | Casey Schmitt | Merrill Kelly | 60 | C+ Value |
| #47 | Jorge Soler | Aaron Civale | 60 | C+ Value |
| #48 | Ezequiel Duran | Kyle Freeland | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Jake Burger | Kyle Freeland | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | CJ Abrams | Zach Thornton | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Samuel Basallo | Steven Matz | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Shohei Ohtani | Randy Vásquez | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Ryan Kreidler | Mike Burrows | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #81 | Jo Adell | Aaron Civale | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #82 | Austin Riley | Janson Junk | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #86 | Dominic Smith | Janson Junk | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #120 | Ketel Marte | Tyler Mahle | 43 | D Below |
| #138 | Alec Bohm | Andrew Abbott | 40 | D Below |
| #144 | Salvador Perez | Connelly Early | 40 | D Below |
| #151 | Jacob Young | Zach Thornton | 39 | D Below |
| #154 | Jarren Duran | Michael Wacha | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Spencer Horwitz | Michael McGreevy | 37 | D Below |
| #171 | Josh Lowe | Aaron Civale | 37 | D Below |
| #178 | Teoscar Hernández | Randy Vásquez | 36 | D Below |
| #183 | Randy Arozarena | Sean Burke | 35 | D Below |
| #201 | Edmundo Sosa | Andrew Abbott | 31 | D Below |
| #209 | Jhonny Pereda | Sean Burke | 29 | D Below |
| #212 | Victor Caratini | Mike Burrows | 28 | D Below |
| #242 | Jeff McNeil | Jack Kochanowicz | 22 | D Below |
| #256 | Hunter Feduccia | Shane Baz | 14 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Samuel Basallo, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Kreidler, Jo Adell, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith, Ketel Marte, Alec Bohm, Salvador Perez, Jacob Young, Jarren Duran, Spencer Horwitz, Josh Lowe, Teoscar Hernández, Randy Arozarena, Edmundo Sosa, Jhonny Pereda, Victor Caratini, Jeff McNeil, Hunter Feduccia
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.