MLB Home Run Predictions — May 19, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-19: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 19, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Ben Rice | Dylan Cease | 88 | A Excellent |
| #5 | Mike Trout | Jacob Lopez | 85 | A Excellent |
| #11 | James Wood | Nolan McLean | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #36 | Brent Rooker | Reid Detmers | 62 | C+ Value |
| #42 | Juan Soto | Foster Griffin | 60 | C+ Value |
| #54 | Michael Harris II | Braxton Garrett | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Brandon Nimmo | Sammy Peralta | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | José Tena | Nolan McLean | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #83 | Brice Turang | Ben Brown | 48 | D Below |
| #92 | Yandy Díaz | Kyle Bradish | 46 | D Below |
| #106 | Xavier Edwards | Martín Pérez | 44 | D Below |
| #112 | Spencer Torkelson | Parker Messick | 43 | D Below |
| #119 | Alec Burleson | Mitch Keller | 42 | D Below |
| #122 | Rafael Devers | Ryne Nelson | 42 | D Below |
| #129 | Nolan Gorman | Mitch Keller | 40 | D Below |
| #145 | Freddie Freeman | Griffin Canning | 38 | D Below |
| #146 | Miguel Andujar | Emmet Sheehan | 38 | D Below |
| #153 | Willy Adames | Ryne Nelson | 37 | D Below |
| #154 | Ketel Marte | Landen Roupp | 37 | D Below |
| #155 | Trea Turner | Chase Burns | 36 | D Below |
| #156 | Ryan McMahon | Dylan Cease | 36 | D Below |
| #180 | Jarren Duran | Bailey Falter | 33 | D Below |
| #182 | JJ Wetherholt | Mitch Keller | 33 | D Below |
| #189 | Bo Bichette | Foster Griffin | 32 | D Below |
| #195 | Manny Machado | Emmet Sheehan | 32 | D Below |
| #196 | Taylor Ward | Griffin Jax | 31 | D Below |
| #218 | Iván Herrera | Mitch Keller | 25 | D Below |
| #239 | Travis Bazzana | Keider Montero | 17 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Michael Harris II, Brandon Nimmo, José Tena, Brice Turang, Yandy Díaz, Xavier Edwards, Spencer Torkelson, Alec Burleson, Rafael Devers, Nolan Gorman, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Andujar, Willy Adames, Ketel Marte, Trea Turner, Ryan McMahon, Jarren Duran, JJ Wetherholt, Bo Bichette, Manny Machado, Taylor Ward, Iván Herrera, Travis Bazzana