MLB Home Run Predictions — May 23, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-23: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 23, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
19
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
52.1 vs 45.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Jordan Walker | Chase Petty | 80 | A Excellent |
| #9 | Jordan Walker | Chris Paddack | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #18 | Elly De La Cruz | Kyle Leahy | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #22 | Nathaniel Lowe | Kyle Leahy | 69 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Elly De La Cruz | Andre Pallante | 66 | C+ Value |
| #35 | mike trout | Nathan Eovaldi | 66 | C+ Value |
| #42 | Nathaniel Lowe | Andre Pallante | 64 | C+ Value |
| #52 | Christian Walker | Colin Rea | 61 | C+ Value |
| #88 | ketel marte | Michael Lorenzen | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #127 | Casey Schmitt | Bryan Hudson | 47 | D Below |
| #137 | Teoscar Hernández | Robert Gasser | 46 | D Below |
| #142 | Harrison Bader | Bryan Hudson | 45 | D Below |
| #147 | Liam Hicks | Freddy Peralta | 45 | D Below |
| #157 | tj rumfield | Zac Gallen | 43 | D Below |
| #181 | Jorbit Vivas | Grant Holmes | 40 | D Below |
| #205 | Willy Adames | Bryan Hudson | 37 | D Below |
| #209 | Dylan Crews | Grant Holmes | 36 | D Below |
| #219 | George Springer | Paul Skenes | 34 | D Below |
| #288 | Tyler Heineman | Paul Skenes | 10 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Christian Walker, ketel marte, Casey Schmitt, Teoscar Hernández, Harrison Bader, Liam Hicks, tj rumfield, Jorbit Vivas, Willy Adames, Dylan Crews, George Springer, Tyler Heineman
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.