MLB Home Run Predictions — April 17, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
26
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
51.5 vs 41.3
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 | Ben Rice | Michael Wacha | 80 | A Excellent |
| #20 | Yordan Alvarez | Kyle Leahy | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #21 | Max Muncy | Tomoyuki Sugano | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #22 | Max Muncy | Davis Martin | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #25 | Dominic Smith | Taijuan Walker | 69 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Ian Happ | Kodai Senga | 66 | C+ Value |
| #36 | Michael Harris II | Taijuan Walker | 65 | C+ Value |
| #37 | James Wood | Logan Webb | 65 | C+ Value |
| #39 | Moisés Ballesteros | Kodai Senga | 64 | C+ Value |
| #45 | Jeremiah Jackson | Tanner Bibee | 62 | C+ Value |
| #50 | Yoán Moncada | Matt Waldron | 61 | C+ Value |
| #56 | Oneil Cruz | Nick Martinez | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Austin Riley | Taijuan Walker | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Daniel Schneemann | Chris Bassitt | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Josh Lowe | Matt Waldron | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #108 | Casey Schmitt | Zack Littell | 45 | D Below |
| #122 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Cam Schlittler | 43 | D Below |
| #127 | Jose Altuve | Kyle Leahy | 42 | D Below |
| #141 | Ryan McMahon | Michael Wacha | 39 | D Below |
| #145 | Ivan Herrera | Peter Lambert | 38 | D Below |
| #146 | Nolan Gorman | Peter Lambert | 38 | D Below |
| #181 | Nico Hoerner | Kodai Senga | 30 | D Below |
| #201 | Brandon Nimmo | Logan Gilbert | 27 | D Below |
| #210 | Heliot Ramos | Zack Littell | 24 | D Below |
| #212 | Nolan Arenado | Eric Lauer | 24 | D Below |
| #239 | Daylen Lile | Logan Webb | 17 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Oneil Cruz, Austin Riley, Daniel Schneemann, Josh Lowe, Casey Schmitt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jose Altuve, Ryan McMahon, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Gorman, Nico Hoerner, Brandon Nimmo, Heliot Ramos, Nolan Arenado, Daylen Lile
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.