MLB Home Run Predictions — April 15, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-15: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 15, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
17
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
40.6 vs 38.5
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Matt Olson | Chris Paddack | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #5 | Teoscar Hernandez | Clay Holmes | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #6 | Teoscar Hernández | Clay Holmes | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #7 | Dansby Swanson | Jesús Luzardo | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #14 | Bryce Harper | Shota Imanaga | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Austin Riley | Chris Paddack | 43 | D Below |
| #40 | Yordan Alvarez | Jose Quintana | 37 | D Below |
| #55 | Trevor Story | Simeon Woods Richardson | 36 | D Below |
| #56 | Ozzie Albies | Chris Paddack | 36 | D Below |
| #70 | Trea Turner | Shota Imanaga | 35 | D Below |
| #75 | Nico Hoerner | Jesús Luzardo | 23 | D Below |
| #86 | Xander Bogaerts | Emerson Hancock | 27 | D Below |
| #93 | Junior Caminero | Sean Burke | 42 | D Below |
| #104 | Jeremiah Jackson | Eduardo Rodriguez | 46 | D Below |
| #129 | Jake Fraley | Sean Burke | 24 | D Below |
| #132 | Luke Raley | Randy Vásquez | 38 | D Below |
| #135 | Liam Hicks | Bryce Elder | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Trevor Story, Ozzie Albies, Trea Turner, Nico Hoerner, Xander Bogaerts, Junior Caminero, Jeremiah Jackson, Jake Fraley, Luke Raley, Liam Hicks
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.