MLB Home Run Predictions — April 11, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-11: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 11, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.3 vs 38.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Brandon Pfaadt | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #2 | Shohei Ohtani | Jack Leiter | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #10 | Teoscar Hernandez | Jack Leiter | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #19 | Mickey Moniak | Germán Márquez | 49 | D Below |
| #29 | Bryce Harper | Brandon Pfaadt | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Spencer Steer | George Klassen | 48 | D Below |
| #35 | Cal Raleigh | Lance McCullers Jr. | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Gunnar Henderson | Logan Webb | 44 | D Below |
| #64 | Julio Rodriguez | Lance McCullers Jr. | 40 | D Below |
| #65 | Jorge Polanco | Lance McCullers Jr. | 42 | D Below |
| #75 | Austin Wells | Nick Martinez | 44 | D Below |
| #76 | Riley Greene | Janson Junk | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Jose Ramirez | Martín Pérez | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #97 | Tyler Soderstrom | Kodai Senga | 37 | D Below |
| #99 | Bo Bichette | Joe Ryan | 45 | D Below |
| #113 | Brandon Nimmo | Jacob Lopez | 31 | D Below |
| #123 | Manny Machado | Ryan Feltner | 33 | D Below |
| #126 | Trevor Larnach | Eric Lauer | 40 | D Below |
| #159 | Brooks Lee | Eric Lauer | 37 | D Below |
| #163 | Edouard Julien | Eric Lauer | 38 | D Below |
| #166 | Maikel Garcia | Erick Fedde | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Austin Wells, Riley Greene, Jose Ramirez, Tyler Soderstrom, Bo Bichette, Brandon Nimmo, Manny Machado, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Maikel Garcia
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.