MLB Home Run Predictions — April 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
0/15
Top-15 picks that homered
42.3 vs 36.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #18 | Brent Rooker | Lance McCullers Jr. | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #19 | Mickey Moniak | Taijuan Walker | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #20 | Ben Rice | Chris Paddack | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Dansby Swanson | Slade Cecconi | 44 | D Below |
| #35 | Christian Walker | Jacob Lopez | 47 | D Below |
| #36 | Junior Caminero | Simeon Woods Richardson | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Ian Happ | Slade Cecconi | 44 | D Below |
| #69 | Drake Baldwin | Brandon Pfaadt | 41 | D Below |
| #72 | Matt Wallner | Nick Martinez | 48 | D Below |
| #85 | Matt Shaw | Slade Cecconi | 40 | D Below |
| #93 | Dansby Swanson | Parker Messick | 39 | D Below |
| #108 | Ian Happ | Parker Messick | 38 | D Below |
| #111 | Cole Young | Ryan Johnson | 32 | D Below |
| #125 | Oneil Cruz | Chris Bassitt | 39 | D Below |
| #130 | Matt Shaw | Parker Messick | 35 | D Below |
| #151 | Manny Machado | Ranger Suarez | 36 | D Below |
| #161 | Kerry Carpenter | Kyle Leahy | 47 | D Below |
| #163 | Adolis Garcia | Chase Burns | 35 | D Below |
| #166 | Jackson Merrill | Ranger Suarez | 37 | D Below |
| #173 | Maikel Garcia | Kyle Harrison | 32 | D Below |
| #200 | Jake Meyers | Jacob Lopez | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Ian Happ, Drake Baldwin, Matt Wallner, Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Cole Young, Oneil Cruz, Matt Shaw, Manny Machado, Kerry Carpenter, Adolis Garcia, Jackson Merrill, Maikel Garcia, Jake Meyers
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.