WSH
@
7:10p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof open
Park 0.94×
Wind 1 mph in
62°F
open
+4
11 mph · slight_out
82°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
10 mph · slight_out
81°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
10 mph · slight_out
79°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · slight_out
77°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
9 mph · slight_out
76°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.94
62°F, wind 1 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 63 | 🔵 C+ | +350 | ❄ COLD | 19 | 0.235 | 95.4 | 15.8% | 29.4% vs LHP | 408 | 25.4% | 7.7% | 17.3% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 33 | 0.243 | 87.9 | 11.1% | 21.4% vs LHP | 400 | 22.2% | 36.4% | 27.1% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams | 53 | 🟠 C | +500 | · | 63 | 0.225 | 90.1 | 10.5% | 16.7% vs LHP | 389 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 24.2% | 27 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 43 | ⚪ D | +750 | ❄ COLD | 125 | 0.182 | 89.2 | 7.6% | 18.2% vs LHP | 378 | 12.9% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 21 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 41 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 147 | 0.152 | 87.3 | 8.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 34 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 159 | 0.143 | 89.0 | 8.5% | 5.6% vs LHP | 391 | 8.6% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 17 | ⚪ D | · | · | 226 | 0.041 | 84.8 | · | 0.0% vs LHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 23 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras ⚡ | 52 | 🟠 C | +425 | · | 74 | 0.231 | 90.2 | 10.1% | 34.3% vs RHP | 403 | 20.3% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 44 | ⚪ D | +395 | · | 123 | 0.171 | 89.8 | 9.3% | 12.3% vs RHP | 402 | 12.7% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Jarren Duran ⚡ | 42 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 137 | 0.155 | 89.4 | 8.9% | 34.4% vs RHP | 396 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 36 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 180 | 0.166 | 86.1 | 6.3% | 15.4% vs RHP | 370 | 9.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 44 |
| 5 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 36 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 184 | 0.145 | 84.8 | 4.7% | 20.8% vs RHP | 381 | 8.0% | 30.8% | 13.8% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 31 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 205 | 0.085 | 91.5 | 7.8% | 11.1% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 31 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 208 | 0.114 | 88.6 | 4.1% | 6.5% vs RHP | 390 | 6.7% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 20 |