2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 2 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Ketel Marte 5 HRs · 6 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 9 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 10 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 11 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs · 12 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs 1 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 2 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Ketel Marte 5 HRs · 6 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 9 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 10 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 11 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs · 12 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs
STL
@ 7:15p
ATL
Truist Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open
Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph cross 75°F open
-5
4 mph · in
86°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-4
4 mph · in
85°F
8:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
4 mph · cross
83°F
9:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
4 mph · slight_out
81°F
10:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
4 mph · slight_out
79°F
11:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.92

75°F, wind 3 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore LHP 💥 Meltdown
1.91 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.00 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 60 🔵 C+ +335 ❄ COLD 36 0.266 92.8 11.8% 20.5% vs LHP 409 20.7% 0.0% 18.7% 31
2 Drake Baldwin Drake Baldwin 56 🟠 C +400 ❄ COLD 52 0.207 91.5 13.2% 53.8% vs LHP 407 19.7% 0.0% 21.2% 23
3 Austin Riley Austin Riley 43 ⚪ D +400 · 126 0.150 90.9 10.2% 15.8% vs LHP 409 7.4% 0.0% 9.2% 27
4 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 41 ⚪ D +425 🌧️ COOL 142 0.157 87.1 6.4% 15.8% vs LHP 383 12.2% 7.7% 9.6% 41
5 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 151 0.140 90.7 6.6% 0.0% vs LHP 374 7.7% 10.0% 10.3% 15
6 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 160 0.135 87.9 8.5% 0.0% vs LHP 390 7.8% 0.0% 7.4% 20
7 Mauricio Dubon Mauricio Dubon 37 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 174 0.149 86.6 7.5% 11.5% vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 42
Martín Pérez
Martín Pérez LHP
0.88 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.14 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 50 🟠 C +335 ❄ COLD 78 0.231 93.7 9.3% 40.0% vs LHP 408 17.4% 0.0% 17.4% 27
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 45 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 118 0.195 91.9 8.5% 4.0% vs LHP 405 16.7% 0.0% 9.3% 37
3 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 185 0.161 89.5 6.6% 33.3% vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 28
4 Jj Wetherholt Jj Wetherholt 35 ⚪ D +525 ❄ COLD 187 0.143 90.2 6.7% 7.4% vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 41
5 Nathan Church Nathan Church 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 189 0.134 86.2 7.5% 0.0% vs LHP 387 6.0% 0.0% 5.9% 22
6 Pedro Pages Pedro Pages 32 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 197 0.131 87.0 6.1% 0.0% vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 8
7 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 28 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 218 0.087 87.5 4.6% 0.0% vs LHP 389 3.9% 9.1% 5.9% 34
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