STL
@
7:15p
ATL
Stadium Conditions
Truist Park
First pitch 7:15p
· roof open
Park 0.92×
Wind 3 mph cross
75°F
open
-5
4 mph · in
86°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-4
4 mph · in
85°F
8:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
4 mph · cross
83°F
9:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
4 mph · slight_out
81°F
10:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
4 mph · slight_out
79°F
11:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.92
75°F, wind 3 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +335 | ❄ COLD | 36 | 0.266 | 92.8 | 11.8% | 20.5% vs LHP | 409 | 20.7% | 0.0% | 18.7% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin ⚡ | 56 | 🟠 C | +400 | ❄ COLD | 52 | 0.207 | 91.5 | 13.2% | 53.8% vs LHP | 407 | 19.7% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 23 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 43 | ⚪ D | +400 | · | 126 | 0.150 | 90.9 | 10.2% | 15.8% vs LHP | 409 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 27 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 41 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 142 | 0.157 | 87.1 | 6.4% | 15.8% vs LHP | 383 | 12.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 151 | 0.140 | 90.7 | 6.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 374 | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 15 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith | 40 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 160 | 0.135 | 87.9 | 8.5% | 0.0% vs LHP | 390 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 37 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.149 | 86.6 | 7.5% | 11.5% vs LHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 42 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker ⚡ | 50 | 🟠 C | +335 | ❄ COLD | 78 | 0.231 | 93.7 | 9.3% | 40.0% vs LHP | 408 | 17.4% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson ⚡ | 45 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 118 | 0.195 | 91.9 | 8.5% | 4.0% vs LHP | 405 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Ivan Herrera ⚡ | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 185 | 0.161 | 89.5 | 6.6% | 33.3% vs LHP | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 35 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 187 | 0.143 | 90.2 | 6.7% | 7.4% vs LHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Nathan Church | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 189 | 0.134 | 86.2 | 7.5% | 0.0% vs LHP | 387 | 6.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages | 32 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 197 | 0.131 | 87.0 | 6.1% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 28 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 218 | 0.087 | 87.5 | 4.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 389 | 3.9% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 34 |