TOR
@
2:20p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 2:20p
· roof open
Park 1.04×
Wind 7 mph out
75°F
open
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
2:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
3:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
4:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
5:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
6:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.24
75°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ian Happ | 67 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 23 | 0.251 | 89.9 | 10.5% | 17.4% vs LHP | 403 | 23.3% | 16.7% | 21.5% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 25 | 0.224 | 91.5 | 9.3% | 22.2% vs LHP | 392 | 18.9% | 41.7% | 19.9% | 41 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 77 | 0.179 | 89.6 | 8.4% | 25.0% vs LHP | 409 | 11.3% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 29 |
| 4 |
|
Miguel Amaya | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 79 | 0.213 | 86.1 | 8.0% | 9.1% vs LHP | 384 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 13.1% | 8 |
| 5 |
|
Michael Busch | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 86 | 0.159 | 88.3 | 9.5% | 11.1% vs LHP | 400 | 10.7% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 33 |
| 6 |
|
Matt Shaw | 46 | ⚪ D | · | · | 105 | 0.184 | 86.7 | 6.5% | 22.2% vs LHP | 357 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 16 |
| 7 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 43 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 131 | 0.134 | 89.2 | 7.0% | 22.2% vs LHP | 396 | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 22 |
| 8 |
|
Alex Bregman | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 150 | 0.135 | 88.1 | 6.2% | 8.3% vs LHP | 395 | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 36 |
| 9 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 197 | 0.093 | 85.9 | 2.9% | 12.5% vs LHP | 383 | 5.5% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 42 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 26 | 0.202 | 92.0 | 13.0% | 28.9% vs RHP | 402 | 16.1% | 16.7% | 25.8% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Valenzuela | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 42 | 0.200 | 89.6 | 10.2% | 25.0% vs RHP | 397 | 15.0% | 16.7% | 15.5% | 18 |
| 3 |
|
Davis Schneider | 59 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 47 | 0.155 | 88.2 | 12.3% | 16.7% vs RHP | 399 | 5.4% | 40.0% | 18.7% | 13 |
| 4 |
|
George Springer | 57 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 53 | 0.169 | 88.3 | 9.9% | 23.3% vs RHP | 392 | 10.8% | 27.3% | 22.1% | 32 |
| 5 |
|
Daulton Varsho | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 122 | 0.146 | 86.0 | 8.3% | 12.1% vs RHP | 387 | 6.4% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0 |
| 6 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 152 | 0.139 | 86.3 | 7.0% | 14.3% vs RHP | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 27 |
| 7 |
|
Myles Straw | 34 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 175 | 0.090 | 86.0 | 6.8% | 10.0% vs RHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 185 | 0.097 | 86.2 | 3.2% | 11.1% vs RHP | 383 | 3.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 33 |