2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
TOR
@ 2:20p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 2:20p · roof open
Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 75°F open
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
2:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
3:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
4:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
5:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
6:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.24

75°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin LHP
1.06 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.04 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 67 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 23 0.251 89.9 10.5% 17.4% vs LHP 403 23.3% 16.7% 21.5% 32
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 66 🔵 C+ · · 25 0.224 91.5 9.3% 22.2% vs LHP 392 18.9% 41.7% 19.9% 41
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 77 0.179 89.6 8.4% 25.0% vs LHP 409 11.3% 9.1% 13.6% 29
4 Miguel Amaya Miguel Amaya 51 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 79 0.213 86.1 8.0% 9.1% vs LHP 384 9.1% 0.0% 13.1% 8
5 Michael Busch Michael Busch 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 86 0.159 88.3 9.5% 11.1% vs LHP 400 10.7% 16.7% 8.9% 33
6 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 46 ⚪ D · · 105 0.184 86.7 6.5% 22.2% vs LHP 357 10.0% 0.0% 13.5% 16
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 131 0.134 89.2 7.0% 22.2% vs LHP 396 11.1% 10.0% 9.8% 22
8 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 150 0.135 88.1 6.2% 8.3% vs LHP 395 6.8% 8.3% 8.2% 36
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 197 0.093 85.9 2.9% 12.5% vs LHP 383 5.5% 0.0% 8.5% 42
Colin Rea
Colin Rea RHP
1.43 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.35 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 66 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 26 0.202 92.0 13.0% 28.9% vs RHP 402 16.1% 16.7% 25.8% 26
2 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Valenzuela 60 🔵 C+ · · 42 0.200 89.6 10.2% 25.0% vs RHP 397 15.0% 16.7% 15.5% 18
3 Davis Schneider Davis Schneider 59 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 47 0.155 88.2 12.3% 16.7% vs RHP 399 5.4% 40.0% 18.7% 13
4 George Springer George Springer 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 53 0.169 88.3 9.9% 23.3% vs RHP 392 10.8% 27.3% 22.1% 32
5 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 44 ⚪ D · · 122 0.146 86.0 8.3% 12.1% vs RHP 387 6.4% 0.0% 11.1% 0
6 Andres Gimenez Andres Gimenez 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 152 0.139 86.3 7.0% 14.3% vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 27
7 Myles Straw Myles Straw 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 175 0.090 86.0 6.8% 10.0% vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 21
8 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 185 0.097 86.2 3.2% 11.1% vs RHP 383 3.6% 10.0% 7.6% 33
🏟️
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