TOR
@
6:45p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.94×
Wind 4 mph slight_out
78°F
open
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.04
78°F, wind 4 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 57 | 🟠 C | · | · | 58 | 0.231 | 90.2 | 8.4% | 37.9% vs RHP | 403 | 21.5% | 33.3% | 26.7% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 142 | 0.172 | 90.2 | 7.5% | 34.5% vs RHP | 391 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 145 | 0.160 | 89.9 | 7.5% | 12.5% vs RHP | 395 | 12.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 39 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 158 | 0.179 | 86.8 | 5.7% | 17.1% vs RHP | 370 | 10.9% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 26 | ⚪ D | · | · | 210 | 0.089 | 86.6 | 5.5% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 4.3% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 21 |
| 6 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 211 | 0.114 | 85.2 | 3.8% | 10.5% vs RHP | 396 | 3.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 34 |
| 7 |
|
Connor Wong | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 215 | 0.111 | 87.3 | 4.2% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 22 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 218 | 0.100 | 88.9 | 2.9% | 3.7% vs RHP | 393 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 14 |
| 9 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 18 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 222 | 0.060 | 82.2 | 4.0% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 33 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 52 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 82 | 0.205 | 92.1 | 8.4% | 28.6% vs LHP | 402 | 17.3% | 25.0% | 19.2% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Alejandro Kirk | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 103 | 0.311 | 87.8 | 4.5% | 33.3% | 394 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 6 |
| 3 |
|
George Springer | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 172 | 0.162 | 87.8 | 6.2% | 13.3% vs LHP | 387 | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 29 |
| 4 |
|
Ernie Clement | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 185 | 0.154 | 85.4 | 3.7% | 15.0% vs LHP | 374 | 10.3% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Davis Schneider | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 193 | 0.076 | 87.6 | 7.3% | 0.0% vs LHP | 390 | 2.9% | 50.0% | 6.0% | 4 |
| 6 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 212 | 0.130 | 86.0 | 4.0% | 12.5% vs LHP | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Myles Straw | 21 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 220 | 0.087 | 86.4 | 4.5% | 5.6% vs LHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 19 |
| 8 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 18 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 224 | 0.075 | 86.1 | 2.2% | 4.2% | 374 | 1.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 36 |