TEX
@
7:20p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 7:20p
· roof open
Park 0.94×
Wind 6 mph cross
89°F
open
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
7:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
8:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
9:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
10:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
11:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.12
89°F, wind 6 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +650 | · | 25 | 0.231 | 90.2 | 11.5% | 33.3% vs RHP | 408 | 20.3% | 27.3% | 30.7% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 52 | 🟠 C | +850 | · | 75 | 0.163 | 90.4 | 10.3% | 34.5% vs RHP | 391 | 15.4% | 16.7% | 19.6% | 27 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 49 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 88 | 0.162 | 89.8 | 10.3% | 12.7% vs RHP | 395 | 12.3% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 100 | 0.181 | 87.3 | 7.8% | 17.1% vs RHP | 370 | 11.1% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 33 | ⚪ D | · | · | 183 | 0.091 | 86.9 | 7.6% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 4.3% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 189 | 0.116 | 85.3 | 5.2% | 10.5% vs RHP | 396 | 3.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 36 |
| 7 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 31 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 191 | 0.090 | 91.1 | 7.6% | 11.1% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 9 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 209 | 0.100 | 88.9 | 4.1% | 3.7% vs RHP | 393 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 16 |
| 9 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 220 | 0.062 | 82.7 | 5.5% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 33 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Justin Foscue | 58 | 🟠 C | · | · | 54 | 0.181 | 89.9 | 10.7% | 40.0% vs LHP | 400 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 23.0% | 11 |
| 2 |
|
Jake Burger | 54 | 🟠 C | +750 | · | 70 | 0.188 | 90.1 | 10.7% | 30.8% vs LHP | 396 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Brandon Nimmo | 47 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 104 | 0.153 | 92.0 | 11.2% | 8.3% vs LHP | 411 | 9.5% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Kyle Higashioka | 45 | ⚪ D | · | · | 115 | 0.153 | 88.3 | 10.9% | 13.8% | 401 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 20 |
| 5 |
|
Josh Jung | 44 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 125 | 0.158 | 89.5 | 7.8% | 18.2% vs LHP | 387 | 12.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 38 |
| 6 |
|
Ezequiel Duran | 42 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 137 | 0.156 | 90.1 | 8.3% | 16.7% vs LHP | 370 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 32 |
| 7 |
|
Wyatt Langford | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 151 | 0.131 | 89.3 | 8.3% | 16.7% vs LHP | 373 | 4.9% | 14.3% | 7.8% | 24 |
| 8 |
|
Alejandro Osuna | 12 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 233 | 0.021 | 88.4 | · | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 11 |