TEX
@
4:10p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 4:10p
· roof open
Park 0.91×
Wind 4 mph out
88°F
open
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
4:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
5:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
6:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.09
88°F, wind 4 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 62 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 34 | 0.219 | 90.0 | 12.3% | 32.0% vs RHP | 408 | 20.6% | 27.3% | 26.2% | 25 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 49 | ⚪ D | · | · | 84 | 0.167 | 90.4 | 10.7% | 33.3% vs RHP | 391 | 14.1% | 16.7% | 18.8% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 108 | 0.146 | 89.8 | 11.0% | 11.9% vs RHP | 395 | 12.5% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 126 | 0.165 | 87.3 | 8.3% | 15.6% vs RHP | 370 | 11.3% | 18.2% | 11.6% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 31 | ⚪ D | · | · | 187 | 0.092 | 86.9 | 8.1% | 3.0% vs RHP | 388 | 4.4% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 188 | 0.118 | 85.5 | 5.6% | 11.1% vs RHP | 396 | 3.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 189 | 0.090 | 91.5 | 8.2% | 11.1% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7 |
| 8 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 216 | 0.064 | 83.0 | 5.9% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 32 |
| 9 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 217 | 0.060 | 89.6 | 7.0% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 26 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Justin Foscue | 54 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 63 | 0.185 | 90.3 | 8.6% | 40.0% vs LHP | 400 | 14.3% | 100.0% | 21.5% | 9 |
| 2 |
|
Jake Burger | 42 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 130 | 0.190 | 90.0 | 8.2% | 30.8% vs LHP | 394 | 13.1% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Josh Jung | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 153 | 0.160 | 89.5 | 6.1% | 20.0% vs LHP | 387 | 12.9% | 16.7% | 9.1% | 41 |
| 4 |
|
Ezequiel Duran | 34 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 175 | 0.158 | 90.0 | 6.5% | 16.7% vs LHP | 370 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Wyatt Langford | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 177 | 0.126 | 89.3 | 6.6% | 16.7% vs LHP | 373 | 5.0% | 16.7% | 7.2% | 20 |
| 6 |
|
Michael Helman | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 190 | 0.118 | 82.4 | · | 14.3% vs LHP | 378 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 11.6% | 12 |
| 7 |
|
Nicky Lopez | 17 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 225 | 0.095 | 85.6 | · | 14.3% | 397 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 22 |